Mitch Keller is proving why Pirates were right to ignore trade temptation

Starting around this time last year, trade rumors started to swirl around Mitch Keller. By the time the trade deadline rolled around, the assumption was that the Pittsburgh Pirates would deal the veteran right-hander. They didn't find a match that was to their liking, and decided to hang on rather than deal him for less than the price they had set for him.

Then, going into the offseason, the rumors were reignited. The thought was that the Pirates could trade Keller in exchange for a comparable talent on the offensive side of the ball. The way the market panned out, a veteran with a track record of solid performance but a substantial contract proved to be worth less than a younger, controllable starter with greater upside but more uncertainty.

As a result, Mike Burrows was the one on the move as his controllable years and upside were worth significantly more than the near-market-value contract tied to the more experienced Keller. It looked like a win-win trade at the time. The way Burrows has pitched, the Pirates clearly won the deal.

Now, after Jared Jones' return to Pittsburgh's rotation, Keller will become even more important.

Mitch Keller is a vital Pirates' rotation cog as innings limits loom for Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler

In spring training, Ben Cherington spoke about what Jones' activation would mean and how the perceived rotation surplus could be handled.

“You could see potentially, if Jared Jones is activated, we could have seven starting pitchers on the roster,” Cherington said. “That creates opportunity for us to think about deployment different ways."

Now, Cherington is doubling down on the message, reiterating that the deployment for all these arms will be unique. Case in point: Jones' activation off the IL has already caused Carmen Mlodzinski to slide to the bullpen.

When it comes to the rest of the rotation, Braxton Ashcraft has been a stud, and Bubba Chandler has taken his lumps despite his electric stuff. Still, neither of these hurlers is sufficiently built up to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch run.

Ashcraft has dealt with injuries throughout his career and tossed a career-high 118 combined frames last season. Chandler hit 131 1/3 innings between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis last year, which was, you guessed it, a career high. These younger arms aren't equipped to throw 160-plus innings down the stretch, plus another chunk should the Pirates make the playoffs. That's where Keller comes in.

While Paul Skenes is the ace, Keller is the necessary bridge that allows the youngsters the freedom to develop. That's in large part because he eats innings. From 2023 through 2025, the 30-year-old has logged 548 2/3 innings. That's good for sixth-most in the majors over that three-year span. That sort of durability has real value.

The beauty of what Keller does is that he keeps his team in the game and gives them a chance to win. Like Skenes, he has a seven-pitch arsenal, but unlike the ace, he's more of a junk baller than a guy who has a ridiculous amount of plus weapons.

And that has real value. Through 11 starts in 2026, Keller is 11th in baseball in innings pitched with 64 1/3. The rubber-armed righty will likely finish around the top-10 in innings again this season. So far this year, he has a 3.64 ERA, which would be his best mark since 2020.

Trading Keller would have cost the Pirates this hidden value. It sounds simple, but having a starter you can count on to eat innings and give you a chance to win every fifth day has tremendous value, especially in a world where injuries are becoming more and more common. That will allow the club to get creative and make the necessary decisions to put everyone in the best place to succeed, setting up the rotation to be greater than the sum of its parts. And that all starts with Keller and his durability.

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