MLB Top 100 projection shows major leap coming for newly favorite Pirates prospect

Thanks to the presence of consensus top overall prospect Konnor Griffin, the Pittsburgh Pirates' farm system has routinely been ranked as one of the better collections of minor-league talent across baseball this offseason.

MLB's biggest 2026 breakout candidate Bubba Chandler and sixth overall pick Seth Hernandez also help matters on that front, as does recent trade acquisition Jhostynxon Garcia, a.k.a., "The Password." There's a nice mix of pitching firepower and well-rounded hitters atop the team's farm system rankings, but with a number of graduations on the horizon, the Pirates could benefit from a few more top-prospect emergences this year.

Well, look no further than Arizona Fall League superstar Esmerlyn Valdez. The soon-to-be 22-year-old outfielder hit .368/.513/.842 in the offseason league, producing a 1.355 OPS that ranked second among all qualified hitters. After that performance, it's no wonder that MLB.com's Jim Callis expects Valdez to be one of the fastest-rising prospects in the league in 2026.

Esmerlyn Valdez poised to emerge as next top Pirates prospect after AFL heroics

Admittedly, a lot of Valdez's AFL stats were accumulated during an unconscious start in which he hit .517/.674/1.379 in his first 11 games (46 plate appearances) with the Salt River Rafters. That's good for a 2.053 OPS, produced mostly on the back of a whopping eight home runs. Pitchers were clearly terrified of him, seeing as he worked 15 walks against just five strikeouts.

Valdez cooled down after that heater, but even in a hitter-friendly league, a 19-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio is nothing to scoff at for a 21-year-old. Plus, that performance came off the heels of a brilliant campaign in the minor leagues, where Valdez produced a .286/.376/.520 slash line (155 wRC+ and 26 home runs across two levels. (For those who need a reminder, Oneil Cruz led Pittsburgh in homers last year with 20.)

Seeing Valdez cut back on his strikeouts in Arizona was the biggest development, as he improved from a 30.6% strikeout rate in 2024 to a 24.6% rate in 2025. If he can continue to chip away at his swing-and-miss problems while maintaining a double-digit walk rate, he'll raise his floor to match his astronomical ceiling.

He spent most of his time last year in right field, a spot currently owned by Bryan Reynolds. Garcia is also a fit there, though he's expected to play mostly left field in his rookie campaign after arriving in the Johan Oviedo trade.

If Cruz continues to play center field despite poor defensive metrics, that could create something of a logjam in the Pittsburgh outfield as Valdez climbs the system –– especially if Ryan O'Hearn and Spencer Horwitz monopolize playing time at first base and designated hitter.

When was the last time the Pirates had the problem of having too many good hitters? If Valdez can keep hitting his way up the prospect ranks, there might be a really fun dilemma to start talking about.