If only.
Those two worlds have frequently preceded the name Oneil Cruz as Pittsburgh Pirates fans and pundits describe the tantalizing yet frustrating star. If only Cruz could hit a breaking ball. If only Cruz could hit lefties. If only Cruz could get the whiffs under control. The potential has always been sky-high, but the production has typically been much lower than one would expect.
Through 22 games, the 27-year-old has racked up 99 plate appearances. That's enough of a sample to draw conclusions from, and with a .292/.364/.551 with six homers and nine steals. Hitting for average? Check. Tapping into his power? Check. Getting on base and then leveraging his speed? Check and check.
Cruz, realizing his potential, was named an early-season development that fans can believe in, and the data proves that it's no fluke.
In 2024, when Cruz first started showing that he could be a productive player, he feasted on fastballs but struggled tremendously against breaking and offspeed stuff. In 2025, his performance against heaters fell off, and so did his production as his wRC+ dropped from an above-average 110 to a below-average 86.
The sad truth was that even if he rebounded against fastballs, he wasn't going to get any better since opposing pitchers would just feed him a steady diet of soft stuff. To truly break out, he'd need to figure out how to hit a changeup and a slider. Through April 19, he was hitting .310 with three homers against what had been his kryptonite.
Historically, Cruz has been neutralized by southpaws. For his career, same-handed pitchers have held him to a .607 OPS. He went to work over the offseason and forced himself to face lefties throughout the winter, making adjustments in the process. So far in 2026, it seems to be working as Cruz has posted a 1.219 OPS against left-handers.
Oneil Cruz has made real adjustments and is becoming the player Pirates fans have long waited for
Eric Hosmer and Mark DeRosa broke down Cruz's success against lefties earlier this month, highlighting the exact tweaks that he's made. Cruz has done two specific things: open his stance more and narrow the distance between his feet. The pair pointed out that in doing so, he's been able to get his bat around quicker, while still being able to keep the barrel in the zone for as long as possible. DeRosa also noted that the changes have eliminated a lot of the head movement in Cruz's swing, helping him see and track the ball better.
The most encouraging part of what we've seen from Cruz is what the beneath the surface metrics say. His Baseball Savant page has always been filled with bright red, but also deep blue. The reds are still there, but the blues are getting lighter as he moves more towards the average.
What has led to Oneil Cruz's 2026 breakout?@TheRealHoz35 and DeRo dive into a slight adjustment at the plate that is paying huge dividends for the @Pirates slugger. #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/3a3DCmhwVj
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 13, 2026
Bat speed, exit velocity, and hard hit rate have always been extremely big wins for Cruz, but a big problem for him has been his angles. Hitting a ball 115 mph doesn't matter much if it's grounded directly to the second baseman.
Last season, Cruz posted a launch angle sweet spot percentage of 31.5%, which was a 16th percentile mark. Now that's up to 36.8%, a 70th percentile mark. That's led to him pulling more balls in the air. He has nearly doubled his pulled-air rate from 13.2% last year to 26.3% this year, and this is the type of contact that most consistently does damage.
At six-foot-seven, he'll always have an elevated strikeout rate, but if he's hitting all types of pitches, handling lefties, and hitting the ball in the air, he can certainly sustain that. The only thing left for Cruz to tighten up is his defense, but even recently, that has started to look better.
We've always hoped that Cruz could become a five-tool player, but it's often been hard to see how that could come to be despite his immense talents. Fortunately, the adjustments he's made have done a lot of the heavy lifting, and if he keeps this up, he'll be the phenom we've all dreamed of.
