These days, Paul Skenes is the hot topic of conversation around the Pittsburgh Pirates. Not only does everyone want to figure out what's wrong with the ace, but folks are clamoring for him to take more accountability. Skenes is such an important figure in the Pirates' quest to return to the playoffs, making his role in the team's current struggles that much more concerning.
Skenes' most recent outing has fanned the flames. Getting pulled after five innings and 65 pitches is unusual. Don Kelly saying that he felt going to the bullpen gave Pittsburgh a better chance to win is curious, given how much of a weakness the relief corps has been all season.
Add in the fact that Skenes' already declining velocity was hitting a low point, and injury concerns were rightfully raised. The team assures us that the 24-year-old is fully healthy. So what could be going on?
Some have posited that Skenes gained too much weight in the offseason. Maybe that's true, but the numbers don't really seem to back that up. He began the year with his best two months of the season, posting a 2.87 ERA from Opening Day through May 31.
One would think that any significant changes in body composition would have manifested themselves early as he got accustomed to the changes added weight would put on his mechanics. Furthermore, professional athletes tend to lose weight as the season grinds on, so while his struggles have reached a fever pitch, his weight should theoretically be lower than it was at the beginning of the year.
Rob Friedman, also known as "The Pitching Ninja," joined Foul Territory TV to talk about Skenes' struggles and what he believes is going on. His answer was both reassuring and a little bit frustrating.
"Based on his mechanics, it looks a little bit like he may be just in a slump."@PitchingNinja explains why hitters are suddenly having success against Paul Skenes despite his fastball still playing at an elite level. pic.twitter.com/pcCQYGp43J
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) August 10, 2026
Friedman's assessment, by looking at Skenes' mechanics, is that the ace right-hander is just in a slump. Interestingly, he pointed out how sometimes things that pitchers do to keep themselves in sync can end up creating issues rather than solving them.
"One of the things that you see, like his pregame workout when he's doing the water bags and all these twists, is sometimes you overdo it. Like things that work at one point that helped correct things, maybe you get stuck after a while, and it doesn't go on forever, and you don't get better forever at it. So, it could be that his body isn't just synced up perfectly," Friedman explained.
There is likely more than one reason for Paul Skenes' struggles, but the Pirates shouldn't be concerned long-term
Travis Sawchik also took a look into what's wrong with Skenes earlier this month, and one of his hypotheses was that it's likely a combination of little things, such as mechanical issues, more balls hit into the air, a more porous defense behind him, and more. That's probably the real answer, even if it's not the most helpful.
However, there was something else interesting in Sawchik's analysis, and it relates to what Friedman had to say about his slump. Sawchik had a biomechanics expert and a pitching trainer from Driveline analyze Skenes' mechanics, and they came to two conclusions.
First, he was "stepping across his body a lot and cutting himself off" early in the season. But then they also noted that he cleaned up a lot of his mechanical issues as the season went on.
Thinking back to what Friedman said about Skenes' pregame work and specifically the "twists" to ensure he's getting proper rotation, it's reasonable to believe that is in response to him essentially throwing across his body earlier in the year. Perhaps he has overcorrected and is now opening up a tad early.
It's a funny thing to think about how an athlete who spends his life working on the motions that allow for his athletic skill to shine through can suddenly lose that feel, but in the real world of sports, we see it all the time.
Sometimes, being hyper-focused on something can cause small but unnecessary adjustments to be made that might seem like minor tweaks but end up derailing the whole system. It's why it's not uncommon for professional golfers to revamp their swings from the ground up, and in a more baseball-centric example, it's why hitters can sometimes find themselves in between — too early on the soft stuff and too late on heaters.
The good news is that this stuff is fixable, but it can sometimes be hard to make the necessary adjustments in the heat of battle. If Skenes can't get right soon, it might kill whatever remains of the Pirates' playoff hopes, but it's almost certainly something that he can fix with the time and space that the offseason provides.
