Pirates made one costly mistake that turned Paul Skenes' slump into a crisis

Paul Skenes looked like he might be turning a corner in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night at American Family Field. There were even stretches that resembled the pitcher fans have come to expect.

He struck out six and posted zeroes in four of his five innings. But the fourth inning was enough to undo all of it.

He threw first-pitch strikes to only 10 of the 20 batters he faced, walked four and needed 93 pitches to complete five innings. Three of those walks came around to score in Milwaukee’s decisive three-run fourth. Poor command, unfavorable counts and an inability to finish hitters with two strikes turned what could have been a strong outing into Skenes’ 10th loss of the season.

The walks are no longer an isolated concern. Skenes has issued four in consecutive starts and multiple walks in four straight. He has also failed to work beyond the sixth inning in three consecutive outings because his pitch counts have climbed too quickly.

Much has been made this season of the question, “What's wrong with Paul Skenes?”

I truly don't know the answer, and I'm not going to pretend that I do.

Maybe he is trying to be too perfect, as he acknowledged after Wednesday’s game. Maybe hitters have adjusted. Maybe his mechanics or approach are slightly out of sync. Maybe it's some combination of factors that can't be neatly diagnosed from outside the clubhouse.

What is undeniable, however, is that Skenes has become a major problem for a Pirates team attempting to remain in the postseason race. Pittsburgh is 3-12 in his past 15 starts, during which he has posted a 5.20 ERA.

That's a catastrophic stretch from the pitcher who was supposed to give the Pirates their greatest advantage every fifth day. But it wouldn't feel quite so season-ending if the Pirates had done a better job of building a cushion while Skenes was pitching like an ace. That's where the first half of the season matters.

The bullpen repeatedly gave away games the Pirates had positioned themselves to win. The defense extended innings, handed opponents extra outs and turned manageable situations into disasters. The offense had its own prolonged stretches of ineffectiveness. Those losses counted just as much as the ones Pittsburgh is dropping now.

Pirates left no room for Paul Skenes to have a disappointing season

To Ben Cherington’s credit, he finally addressed the bullpen at the trade deadline. Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates and Lake Bachar gave the unit the kind of depth and late-inning credibility it had lacked for months.

Injuries are less controllable. Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O’Hearn, Spencer Horwitz and others have missed significant time. Mitch Keller’s season-ending injury couldn't reasonably have been anticipated.

But the Pirates entered the year knowing that injuries would happen and that individual players would endure slumps. That is why contenders need to accumulate wins when things are going well rather than spending the entire season operating without a margin for error. The Pirates simply did not build that margin.

Now, when Skenes is enduring the worst extended stretch of his career, every command lapse feels enormous. Every walk feels like a turning point. Every loss pushes Pittsburgh closer to the edge because the Pirates squandered too many opportunities before their ace began struggling.

Skenes must be better. There's no way around that. The Pirates can't make a serious run if their best pitcher continues posting a 5.20 ERA and failing to complete six innings. But this season wasn't placed in jeopardy solely because Skenes suddenly stopped looking invincible.

It was placed in jeopardy when the Pirates allowed a disastrous bullpen and unreliable defense to erase their chance at building an early cushion.

They needed those wins then because stretches like this were always possible. They couldn't get them, and now they're paying for it.

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