Paul Skenes’ historic arbitration raise should eliminate Pirates’ favorite offseason excuse

Paul Skenes is about to get a massive raise. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, it still isn't massive enough to justify pinching pennies anywhere else.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Skenes to earn $7.2 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility, a huge jump from the salary of just north of $1 million he earned in 2026. The figure would put him just shy of the record for a first-year arbitration-eligible pitcher, set when Dallas Keuchel received $7.25 million in 2016.

Historic? Sure. Expensive? Not remotely — at least not compared to what Skenes is actually worth. And that's why the Pirates shouldn't even think about using their rising arbitration class as an excuse for a conservative offseason.

Skenes is Pittsburgh's best player, the face of the franchise and a pitcher who has already won a Cy Young Award. Even during a 2026 season that qualified as a "down year" only because of the absurd standard he established for himself, he still struck out 200 batters and earned another All-Star selection.

The Pirates have spent years operating as though any increase in the cost of their homegrown core creates some unavoidable financial squeeze. Arbitration raises arrive. Payroll gets a little more expensive. Suddenly, every outside addition has to be weighed against what the roster might cost two or three years from now.

That argument should be especially difficult to sell this winter.

Yes, Skenes is getting a raise. So is Oneil Cruz, who is projected at $6.3 million. Jared Jones is projected at $2.1 million, while Spencer Horwitz could receive $2.5 million. Pittsburgh has 10 arbitration-eligible players in total.

But look at what the Pirates are actually paying for their most important talent. Skenes at $7.2 million is a bargain. Jones at $2.1 million is a bargain. Even with arbitration increases elsewhere, Pittsburgh's young core remains inexpensive enough that this should be the precise moment ownership is willing to supplement it with meaningful veteran spending.

Pirates’ Paul Skenes arbitration projection is another reminder their window is open right now

The Pirates just finished 82-80, finally ending their streak of losing seasons but still falling short of their stated goal of playing postseason baseball. Their next step cannot consist of congratulating themselves for progress, retaining most of the same roster and waiting for another wave of prospects to arrive. They need to spend while players like Skenes are still providing superstar value without superstar salaries.

That means there should be no convenient accounting explanation if Brandon Lowe proves expensive to retain. There should be no claim that another impact bat would stretch the payroll too far. There should be no winter spent hunting exclusively for reclamation projects, one-year bargains and players whose primary appeal is affordability.

The Pirates don't have a $30 million ace eating up a huge portion of their payroll. They have a pitcher who might be worth something close to that on the open market — and they could be paying him approximately one-fourth of it.

Skenes' arbitration trajectory will only continue upward if he keeps pitching anywhere near this level. Eventually, the Pirates really will have to account for substantially larger salaries for him and the rest of their core. That makes 2027 more urgent, not less.

Every season Pittsburgh gets elite production from Skenes at a fraction of free-agent market value is a season ownership should be redirecting those savings into the rest of the roster. His $7.2 million projection might be historic by arbitration standards, but it's still an incredible bargain for a player of his caliber.

If the Pirates somehow turn that bargain into another reason they can't spend, fans shouldn't buy it.

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