Paul Skenes’ imperfect 2026 season may have taught him more than his dominant ones ever could

Paul Skenes entered the major leagues without much experience being ordinary.

He dominated college baseball. He tore through the minor leagues. He arrived in Pittsburgh in 2024 and immediately pitched like one of the best starters on the planet, posting a 1.96 ERA and winning National League Rookie of the Year. Then, somehow, he was even more impressive over a full season in 2025, finishing with a 1.97 ERA and winning the NL Cy Young Award.

Then came 2026. And for the first time, Skenes had to spend an extended period figuring out why the game suddenly looked a little more difficult. His velocity dipped, his command wasn't always as precise, hitters did more damage, and his ERA nearly doubled. And that might ultimately be one of the best things that could have happened to him.

Skenes finished his third major-league season 10-11 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 200 strikeouts over 174 1/3 innings. Those numbers would represent an excellent season for most pitchers. For Skenes, after consecutive sub-2.00 ERAs, they constituted a clear step backward.

But a straight statistical comparison misses what might matter most about his 2026 season. Skenes finally had to learn how to pitch when everything wasn't working exactly the way he wanted.

Paul Skenes discovered what great pitchers need when their best stuff fails

Skenes' four-seam velocity, which averaged 98.2 mph in 2025, dipped below 97 mph during stretches this season. His walk rate climbed. He generated fewer ground balls, allowed more home runs and wasn't quite as efficient as he had been during his Cy Young campaign. There were small regressions across several areas rather than one obvious flaw.

That forced Skenes into the kind of adjustment his first two major-league seasons rarely demanded. For two years, hitters largely spent their time trying to survive him. In 2026, they began finding small vulnerabilities. Skenes had to respond without simply reaching back for 100 mph every time trouble appeared.

There were frustrating stretches. From May 17 through July 31, Skenes made 14 starts with a 5.18 ERA while the Pirates went 3-11. Questions about his velocity followed him practically everywhere. Skenes insisted throughout the season that he was healthy, which only created more questions as the challenges mounted.

He had to locate better. He had to find different ways to finish hitters. He had to deal with outings where his best fastball wasn't available. He had to process failure, make mechanical adjustments and come back five days later without knowing whether everything would immediately click again. Those experiences simply weren't available to him when he was posting a 1.96 ERA.

And by the end of September, there were signs Skenes had begun working through them. In his final start at PNC Park, Skenes allowed one run over 6 1/3 innings against St. Louis and struck out eight. Kelly left him in long enough to record his 200th strikeout, making Skenes the first Pirates starter since Bob Veale from 1964-66 to record consecutive 200-strikeout seasons. Skenes walked off the mound to an ovation.

It wasn't the ending anyone envisioned before the season. A year earlier, his final outing put the finishing touches on a Cy Young campaign and a sub-2.00 ERA. This time, he was finishing a grind.

Skenes called it exactly that afterward. And yet there was little sense that he viewed the year as wasted.

The Pirates don't need Skenes to pretend 2026 was good enough. It obviously wasn't up to his standard. Pittsburgh entered the year expecting its ace to anchor one of baseball's best rotations, and Skenes himself has never hidden from expectations larger than simply being an above-average starting pitcher.

But development isn't always linear, even for generational talents. Sometimes the season that exposes flaws is the season that teaches a player how to eliminate them.

Skenes now knows what happens when his velocity drops. He knows what major-league hitters do when his command slips. He knows what it feels like when every outing comes with questions about what changed. Most importantly, he now has an entire offseason to study those answers instead of simply trying to maintain what was already working.

Skenes said after his finale that he believes his best baseball is still ahead of him, and maybe 2026 is ultimately the reason it is. His first two seasons showed everyone how dominant Paul Skenes can be when nearly everything goes right. His third may have begun teaching him how to remain dominant when it doesn't.

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