Paul Skenes quietly made a crucial change before the All-Star break

Paul Skenes and Pirates fans are probably tired of the narrative surrounding his 2026 season. They've heard everything, from rumors about him pitching hurt to suggestions that his superhuman results have run their course. In order to put all those concerns to rest, Skenes has leaned into a somewhat paradoxical approach: throw his fastball more.

The four-seamer — its velocity and spin rate, in particular — has been the focus of the Skenes doubters. After all, it’s true that, especially during his win drought, opponents seemed to have figured out his high-velocity pitches. But the underlying metrics indicate that the four-seamer has been better than ever. Skenes seems to know this, and he’s playing to his strengths.

In the month leading up to the All-Star Game, Skenes went to his four-seamer 48% of the time, up from 37% in his games through June 14. The pitch produced an expected statline of .238/.298/.369 but an actual line of .261/.314/.435.

Statistically, he should be seeing better results, validating his fastball-heavy approach. (To be fair to the Skenes doubters, his actual line on the four-seamer up until June 14 was .168/.234/.319.)

Paul Skenes is throwing his fastball more frequently, heating up at the right time for Pirates

An expected OPS of .667 is nothing to sneeze at. Among regular starters, Skenes boasts a four-seamer that ranks in the Top 10 in lowest batting average and on-base percentage and has produced the seventh-best whiff rate. It stands to reason that leaning into this pitch will improve Skenes’ performance in the second half of the season.

So far in his career, Skenes has gotten hot as the season winds on. He has an 11-5 record with a 1.96 ERA in second-half games. The adjustment back to a more aggressive style of pitching could be the key to extending that trend.

If the Pirates opt to go to a six-man rotation, Skenes could be even better, easing the wear-and-tear of a long season that was made even longer by his participation in the World Baseball Classic. Skenes, as always, is a man with a plan, and this plan could very well pay off down the stretch.

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