Paul Skenes' rough Pirates stretch could be defined by this singular issue

For the first time in what feels like forever, people are starting to ask questions about Paul Skenes. Over his last four starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the results haven't looked like the version of the reigning National League Cy Young winner everyone has grown accustomed to seeing.

Wednesday's outing against the Houston Astros was the latest example. Skenes lasted just 4 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits while throwing a career-high 109 pitches. It marked the third time in his last four starts that he failed to make it past the fifth inning. That follows a stretch in which he threw back-to-back eight-inning shutouts.

Panic has naturally begun to creep into some corners of the fanbase, but it shouldn't. If anything, Skenes' recent struggles can largely be traced back to one very specific issue: hitters are suddenly squaring up his fastball.

Through his first nine starts of the season, opponents hit just .109 against Skenes' four-seam fastball and sinker, going 10-for-92. Over his last four starts, however, they're hitting .333 (13-for-39).

When hitters are making more contact against the pitches he uses to get ahead in counts, everything else becomes more difficult. The at-bats are longer, the base runners multiply, and the pitch counts get higher.

Skenes has allowed 26 hits in his last 20 innings, good for an 11.7 H/9 rate. For comparison, he allowed more than four hits in a game only once during his first nine starts of the season.

The walks have ticked up as well. Skenes issued six free passes during this four-start stretch after walking just seven batters over his previous nine outings. He even went more than a month without issuing a walk at all.

When hitters are spoiling pitches, extending counts and forcing deeper sequences, command naturally becomes harder to maintain. That appears to be the case for Skenes.

Paul Skenes is slumping, but it's still too early for Pirates fans to panic

The good news is that there is a massive difference between a pitcher getting hit because he's lost his stuff and a pitcher getting hit because opponents are having temporary success against one pitch profile.

Nothing about Skenes' underlying numbers suggests disaster is looming. Quite the opposite, in fact; his expected ERA this season sits at 2.28. For context, his xERA was 2.50 during his dominant rookie season in 2024 and 2.65 during his Cy Young campaign in 2025.

In other words, Statcast believes Skenes is actually pitching better than he did during either of the previous two years. That's why this recent stretch feels more like an adjustment period than a warning sign.

Opponents have clearly made a concerted effort to attack Skenes' high-velocity offerings, and they've had some success doing it. As a result, his splitter and changeup haven't been quite as devastating because hitters aren't consistently behind in counts the way they had been previously.

But Skenes has already shown throughout his young career that he can make adjustments faster than almost anyone in baseball, so the concern level should remain incredibly low.

The Pirates absolutely need more from their pitching staff right now, and Skenes himself acknowledged that after Wednesday's loss. Anytime an offense scores nine runs, the pitchers have to hold up their end of the bargain.

Still, there's little reason to believe that Skenes is suddenly broken. His fastball is simply getting hit more often than usual, and if history is any indication, that probably won't last much longer.

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