Paul Skenes should avoid the path set by the Pirates' only other Rookie of the Year

Paul Skenes spent this season rewriting the history of one of the oldest franchises in the majors. His latest accolade, the NL Rookie of the Year Award, capped his remarkable campaign. In the 77-year history of the award, the Pirates have only had one other ROY winner: Jason Bay. From now on, Skenes will be trying to escape his predecessor’s fate.

Bay landed with the Pirates after making his MLB debut with the Padres in 2003. A piece in the Brian Giles trade, the outfielder retained his rookie status in 2004, having broken his wrist shortly after his debut with San Diego. Much like Skenes, Bay joined the Pirates in mid-May and established himself as a young star. For Skenes’ sake, that’s where the similarities should end.

Paul Skenes hopes to escape the fate of the Pirates’ other Rookie of the Year.

Bay made two All-Star Games with the Pirates (Skenes has already made — and started — one), but then the Pirates dealt him. By mid-2008, Bay was reaching the end of his four-year extension, so Pittsburgh shipped him off to Boston in one of the Pirates’ worst trades of all time. Within six years, Bay was out of baseball.

This flash in the pan career is exactly the trajectory that Skenes hopes to avoid. Sure, Bay was an All-Star and a Silver Slugger Award recipient in 2009 with the Red Sox, but he only eclipsed 100 games once in his final four seasons (2010-2013). Bay’s greatest struggle was with injuries. He remained healthy with the Pirates, but concussions and rib injuries ultimately derailed his career. 

Given the propensity of injuries to pitchers in the modern game, Skenes and the Pirates should be particularly wary. Skenes already has a strange and iconic warmup that seems to have protective properties. After all, he averaged nearly six innings per start and didn’t miss a turn in the rotation following his MLB debut. Still, the Pirates have been cautious with the young ace, even pulling him from a no-hit bid in the seventh inning.

Skenes now has the offseason to recover from the largest workload of his career. He has not only pitch coach Oscar Marin, but also newly hired assistant Brent Strom in his corner. He has workhorse Mitch Keller, who has finished in the top 10 in innings pitched among NL starters in each of the past two seasons, setting the tone and leading the rotation.

The pieces are in place to help Skenes evade Jason Bay’s injury fate.