Pirates are proving their most painful tradition is alive and well

For a while, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a lot of us fooled. That might be the most frustrating part of all.

Through injuries, slumps and stretches where the roster looked held together by duct tape, the Pirates kept hanging around. They survived without Konnor Griffin. They survived without Oneil Cruz. They survived injuries elsewhere in the lineup. They dealt with bullpen problems, uneven performances from key players and all the usual adversity that can derail a season. And yet, somehow, they remained in the playoff race.

Eventually, I — and plenty of long-suffering Pirates fans like me — started to believe that maybe this team really was different. We should’ve known better.

A week after the trade deadline, the Pirates’ postseason odds have plummeted to around 7%. There's still enough baseball remaining that nothing is mathematically over, but that number is a pretty good illustration of just how quickly a season that carried legitimate expectations has started careening toward massive disappointment.

The Pirates entered 2026 with more investment, more talent and more hype than they have carried into most seasons during the Bob Nutting era. This wasn’t supposed to be another developmental year where meaningful baseball in August counted as some sort of moral victory. They were actually supposed to contend.

Ben Cherington reinforced that expectation at the trade deadline by buying instead of selling. Pittsburgh added Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates and Lake Bachar to overhaul a bullpen that had cost the team games all season.

Then the Pirates responded by watching their playoff chances crater.

Pirates are in the midst of a late-season collapse we should have seen coming

For longtime Pirates fans, there is something horribly familiar about all of this. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently summarized the franchise’s unique ability to make losing as painful as possible: “No franchise collapses better down the stretch than the Pirates. It’s what they do best.”

It sounds cruel until you look at the history. It happened in 2011. It happened in 2012. It happened in 2016, 2017 and 2018. And Pirates fans barely need reminding about 2024. That team entered the final days of July at 55-52, just two games out of a wild-card spot. Pittsburgh bought at the deadline, then proceeded to lose 12 of 13 and finish 76-86.

Different seasons, same gut punch. That is what makes what’s happening now so maddening.

It would almost be easier if the Pirates had simply been bad all year. Nobody would have invested emotionally in a playoff chase. Nobody would have spent July scoreboard watching. Nobody would have convinced themselves that deadline additions could push this team into October.

Instead, the Pirates did what they have done so many times before: They gave everyone just enough reason to believe.

That’s the painful tradition. It’s getting to late July with something meaningful at stake. It’s convincing a beaten-down fan base that maybe, finally, this is the year the pattern changes. It’s creating legitimate expectations before suddenly looking nothing like the team that generated those expectations in the first place.

There's still time for the 2026 Pirates to interrupt this story before the ending becomes official. But urgency is no longer optional. A 7% playoff chance one week after the trade deadline isn’t where this team expected to be, and it certainly isn’t where a roster built to contend should be.

For months, the Pirates survived enough adversity to make us believe their season might have a different ending. And really, we should’ve known better.

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