Pirates are watching Esmerlyn Valdez pass an important rookie test

Esmerlyn Valdez exploded onto the scene and took July NL Rookie of the Month honors home with him. It was the stuff that makes you dream, but the Pittsburgh Pirates phenom was far from unique in dominating upon his first real taste of big league action. Then, as it does for most rookies, the slump came.

Valdez hit the nadir when the calendar turned to August. The 22-year-old went just 1-for-21 with 16 strikeouts over his first eight games of the month. The silver lining was that his ability to draw walks held strong. He walked 12 times during that stretch, posting a .394 on-base percentage despite hitting just .048.

The youngster's slump may have started when he was hit by a pitch on the hand on July 27, but there was more to it than that. His contact rate had always been dangerously low, and pitchers were starting to understand how to attack him. His strike zone recognition helped him avoid flailing at junk, but making consistent contact became a problem that threatened to make him nothing more than a blip on the radar.

However, Valdez has gotten off the mat. He went on a six-game hitting streak from August 11-16 and appears to be not merely surviving, but thriving once again.

During the six-game heater, Valdez was batting .391. Three out of the six games were multi-hit affairs for the youngster, and it was an incredible response to the adversity he's faced.

Pirates star Esmerlyn Valdez is conquering his greatest weakness during current hot streak

The biggest issue that Valdez has faced has been his contact rates. Some oversimplify this and look at contact percentage in black-and-white terms. In reality, there's a lot of nuance.

For example, power hitters typically have lower contact rates, but the contact they make is significantly more impactful. There's a balance that must be struck between long balls and singles and everything in between.

There are also different kinds of contact. In-zone contact is much more valuable than out-of-zone contact. A player like Valdez will make very little out-of-zone contact because he rarely chases (20.9% chase rate), which is a good thing overall. It will, however, drag down his total contact rate.

So, we can say that Valdez can survive with a lower-than-average contact rate than most players because of his plate discipline and power, but only up to a point.

From his first call-up through August 9, the young slugger posted a 69.7 zone contact rate and a 63.2% total contact rate. His o-zone contact rate was 46%.

It's obviously a small sample, but during this six-game stretch, he has posted an 83.8% zone contact rate, a 76.1% overall contact rate, and a 44.4% o-zone contact rate.

If he can maintain something close to that performance, with his power, he'll be a force to be reckoned with on a superstar trajectory. It's too early to jump to that conclusion just yet, but it's encouraging to see him get punched in the mouth and make the necessary adjustments to rebound, while also improving upon his biggest weakness.

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