Pirates becoming MLB’s hottest betting team for surprising reason

The Pirates certainly won’t be world-beaters in 2026, but the Bucs are starting to turn a few heads. Paul Skenes on the mound, Konnor Griffin knocking on the door of the Majors, what’s not to love? The Pittsburgh hype train is rolling through Las Vegas as the money is firmly on the Pirates outperforming expectations this season.

The bookmakers have even taken a more favorable stance. According to betting analyst Ben Fawkes of Yahoo! Sports, BetMGM has raised the Pirates’ over-under line from 72.5 to 78.5. Other sites have similarly rosy projections with DraftKings and Caesar’s offering 78.5 and Rivers Casino at 79.5. For a club that won just 71 games (under their betting line) last season, the market seems relatively optimistic.

The increased win total hasn’t driven fans away from betting on the team, either. Fawkes noted that 97% of bets and 99% of the money rests with the “over” camp. The Pirates themselves aren’t crowing and certainly aren’t literally betting on themselves, but newcomer Ryan O’Hearn has noted a “quiet confidence” at spring training.

For once, the Pirates are favorites… in Vegas?

If the Pirates do, in fact, blow past the 78.5 win mark, it will represent Pittsburgh’s best season since 2018 when they won 82 games. That has been the club’s only winning season in the past decade. Pirates fans need this bet to hit if only to remember what that kind of success feels like.

There’s a reasonable hope that the Pirates will play close to .500 baseball. FanGraphs is projecting the Bucs to win 83 games and finish second in the division. They suggest that Pittsburgh could be the third Wild Card team behind the Braves and Phillies. (They’re giving the NL East crown to the Mets.)

Much of the pressure for this kind of success rests on Paul Skenes’ shoulders. Many of Pittsburgh’s run projections present a fairly even split between runs scored and runs against. The pitching staff will need to (as per usual) keep the light-hitting lineup afloat. The Pirates finally went out and made some moves this winter. The models seem to believe that the aggressive mentality will quickly pay off and pay out.