Jeff Passan’s Paul Skenes projection for 2026 is a challenge to the Pirates

When Jeff Passan makes a projection, it tends to land with weight. And his forecast for Paul Skenes in 2026 is about as loud as a prediction can get.

Passan believes the reigning ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates will follow up his historic 2025 season with an even bigger one. His projected 2026 line for Skenes includes a 18–4 record, 2.03 ERA, 206 IP, 251 strikeouts, 48 walks, 11 HR allowed — and a second consecutive NL Cy Young Award.

At first glance, the numbers look like the natural continuation of a superstar trajectory. But zoom out, and Passan’s projection carries a deeper implication. If Skenes reaches those heights again, the Pirates can no longer behave like a small-market team with a generational pitcher — and their aggressive offseason spending this winter must become the new norm.

Skenes’ 2025 season was already one of the most dominant pitching performances in recent National League history: 1.97 ERA, 216 strikeouts, 42 walks, 187.2 innings and a Cy Young Award. Mind you, he didn’t just win the award — he controlled the race from start to finish. The combination of overwhelming velocity, elite command and durability put him in a tier occupied by very few pitchers.

Passan’s projection suggests something even more striking: 2025 might not have been the peak. Adding nearly 20 more innings and 35 additional strikeouts while maintaining essentially the same ERA would mean Skenes isn’t merely sustaining excellence — he’s expanding it.

Paul Skenes is just getting started, and Pirates must treat him like the fleeting opportunity that he is

If Skenes produces anything close to Passan’s projected line, the conversation around him — and the Pirates — shifts dramatically. It signals that Pittsburgh's competitive window is unequivocally here and now. And therein lies the potential problem.

A generational ace in his mid-20s is the kind of player franchises build entire decades around. But those opportunities disappear quickly if a roster around him isn’t strong enough to contend. It matters, then, what the Pirates do to build around Skenes while they still have him.

Will they continue to push payroll higher? Will they surround him with enough talent to chase October every year? Will they attempt something bold — like a historic long-term extension? (Okay, we know that's not happening... but we can dream.)

A healthy, dominant Skenes gives Pittsburgh a legitimate Game 1 playoff starter, a pitcher capable of stopping losing streaks and a rotation anchor who can carry a team through October. Teams that win championships almost always have that type of arm. And suddenly, the Pirates have one who might be the best in the world.