Pirates' bullpen fallback plans if David Bednar doesn't have a comeback season

Last year, two-time Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star closer David Bednar failed to live up to his typically high expectations. The Renegade only pitched 57.2 innings, working to a poor 5.77 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. It was a forgettable 2024 season for Bednar.

Luckily for Bednar, there are plenty of reasons why he could rebound in 2025. However, the Pirates should still take stock of what they have in case Bednar can't recapture his 2021-2023 form.

The Pirates have three options who would best fill Bednar's shoes if he can't rebound. Dennis Santana is one of those pitchers. Santana was a waiver claim who instantly became a force to be reckoned with out of the Pirates' pen. After a poor first impression in just his second game in Black and Gold, Santana would go on to pitch to a 1.27 ERA, 1.97 FIP, and 0.82 WHIP across his final 42.2 innings of work.

Batters couldn't hit Santana. He had a 31.1% strikeout rate with a .174 batting average against during his time in Pittsburgh. When opponents made contact vs Santana, they managed a meager 84.3 MPH exit velocity and 2% barrel percentage. Santana also didn't make it easy for batters to be patient, as he had just a 5.1% walk rate.

Although his stuff was average in the eyes of Stuff+ at 100, Santana eventually earned himself higher-leverage work by the end of the season, appearing in the seventh inning or later in 23 of his final 25 games.

Dennis Santana, Kyle Nicolas make sense as Pirates' David Bednar replacements

Kyle Nicolas also showed plenty of potential in 2024, and the young pitcher should be among those next in line. Nicolas owned a 3.95 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP in his rookie year. Neither his 22.6% strikeout rate, nor his 12.8 walk rate, impressed anyone, but he had just an 0.60 HR/9 rate with a 45.4% ground ball percentage. Nicolas wasn't as good as Santana at limiting hard contact, with a 90 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel rate. But, if there's one thing that is clear, it's that Nicolas has the stuff to be a closing pitcher. He's just seeking consistency (and a mentor like Brent Strom, perhaps).

Stuff+ loved Nicolas' pitch mix. It marked him down at 126 (keep in mind, this is on a similar scale to stats like OPS+ or wRC+, where 100 is average). There were 160 pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched out of the bullpen last season. Nicolas was one of them with 54.1 IP, and he had the 23rd-best Stuff+ rating. Nicolas is armed with an upper-90s four-seamer, along with a curveball and slider that held opponents to a sub-.300 xwOBA. With his age and potential, it wouldn't be a shock if Nicolas was closing games out for the Pirates in a few years.

Last but not least is Carmen Mlodzinski. Another young reliever with high upside, Mlodzinski pitched 50 innings, working to a 3.38 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander's 22% strikeout rate was slightly below league average, as was his 9.1% walk rate. However, he allowed just three home runs in 2024. Mlodzinski was nearly as good at limiting quality contact as Santana; his 2.8% barrel rate was the fourth-best in baseball last season.

The most promising aspect of Mlodzinski's sophomore season was his huge jump in Stuff+. In 2023, he sat at just 87, but that skyrocketed to 102 in 2024. He saw a slight uptick in his fastball velocity from 95.7 MPH to 96.2 MPH, but started to throw an upper-80s slider to complement his mid-80s sweeper. Both breaking pitches held opponents to a sub-.300 xwOBA, as well as a whiff rate over 30%. The only pitch in his arsenal that didn't induce a swing-and-miss at least 25% of the time was his cutter, but opponents still could only muster up a .270 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against it. He could also close games out for the Pirates, given his breakout potential.

There are some other routes the Pirates could take if Bednar fails to have a comeback season. The Bucs could also move one of their top pitching prospects to the bullpen.

Baseball America projects Braxton Ashcraft to be the Pirates' closing pitcher by 2028. With his injury history, a move to the bullpen seems plausible. Another pitcher in a similar situation is Mike Burrows, who made his way back from April 2023 Tommy John surgery. Both Ashcraft and Burrows have stuff that would play up in the bullpen. The Pirates could also go out and sign a player who can close games if need be. Remember, the Pirates didn't sign Aroldis Chapman last offseason until February.

Pirates fans should have faith that Bednar can rebound in 2025, but at least they have some decent internal options already on the major league roster who could replace the former All-Star if it comes to that. Hopefully, it doesn't, and the Pirates can rely on Bednar, with Santana, Nicolas, and Mlodzinski, along with any other top prospects or offseason additions, holding down the fort as his setup men.