Pirates can’t afford to let Seth Hernandez hype dictate their offseason plans

Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 first-round pick Seth Hernandez has been set up for a Konnor Griffin-like rise. After plucking the teen from Corona High School in California Hernandez began shooting up prospect rankings at the beginning of the season.

Now just 20 years old, Hernandez ranks No. 9 on MLB Pipeline's top 100 list and comes in as the second-highest-ranked pitcher and the top right-handed pitcher.

Hernandez's ascension has folks taking notice. In an early 2027 power rankings piece for ESPN, David Schoenfield ranked the Pirates ninth. Hernandez was part of the reason why, as Schoenfield named him a potential impact rookie for next season.

"Then there's this: There is every reason to believe the rotation will be better, from Paul Skenes to Bubba Chandler to Jared Jones to [Seth] Hernandez debuting at some point. The defense wasn't good and the bullpen needs help, but the Pirates have every reason to believe they can reach the postseason for the first time since 2015," Schoenfield wrote.

The Pirates' rotation was ever-so-slightly below average in 2026, posting a 4.14 ERA that ranked 16th in MLB. Schoenfield has a point that the starters could automatically improve in 2027, with Paul Skenes finally figuring out his struggles and Bubba Chandler taking a step forward, but he also adds Hernandez to the mix as a reason why the group will be better without external improvements.

Schoenfield's view of Hernandez aligns with his own. The young right-hander set a goal to make his big league debut before his 21st birthday. The deadline for that to come to fruition is June 28. Is it lofty? Yes. Is it possible? Also yes.

Relying on Seth Hernandez alone to boost the rotation in 2027 would be a grave mistake for the Pirates

As good as Hernandez is, Pittsburgh has been here before. The club entered 2026 with Bubba Chandler generating a similar level of hype. The 24-year-old posted a 4.50 ERA and had his fair share of struggles during his rookie campaign.

Hernandez might outrank Chandler a touch, but there's an important lesson there. Chandler is almost four years older than Hernandez, had already gotten his feet wet in the majors in 2025, and had thrown 139 1/3 career innings in Triple-A.

The Pirates' next great phenom has none of that going for him. He began his pro career this year at Bradenton and, after just six mind-blowing starts, got bumped up to Greensboro. There, he made 12 starts and threw 46 innings. He was still very good, but he was also human, posting a 3.33 ERA.

Many thought that Hernandez was on the verge of rising to Altoona before the season's end, but he suffered an oblique injury and his season ended on July 24. The final line between both levels was 18 starts, 74 innings pitched, a 40.4% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate, and a 2.43 ERA. Not too shabby, but there were some control issues that also created a not-quite-stellar 1.22 HR/9, in addition to the slightly elevated walk rate.

Counting on Hernandez and rushing him to the majors in 2027 would be a grave mistake. This is a youngster who has yet to pitch above High-A. With just 74 innings last year, his arm still is not built up to the point it needs to be to regularly start in the majors, especially considering that he came straight out of high school. Throwing too much at him too soon not only can cause him to struggle and could negatively impact his development, but it could also be detrimental to his health.

Hernandez is the heir apparent to Skenes. Pittsburgh can't afford to mess with his health and his development. Also, the 2027 stakes are too high to rely on a rookie — any rookie, no matter how high his ceiling may be.

It's been over a decade since the Pirates made the playoffs. The 2026 season was a step in the right direction, but Pittsburgh is nowhere near the top of the mountain.

In order to get where they want to go, the Pirates need to add to their starting rotation. They need to infuse another veteran presence in the unit. They also need a lefty to add variety. Hernandez doesn't solve those needs, and if the Pirates want to make the playoffs in 2027 and beyond, they need to take care of one of their most valuable young assets.

Pittsburgh simply can't afford to rush Hernandez. The upside is tempting, but the downside could be catastrophic.

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