Pirates' Derek Curiel signing delay isn't as concerning as it looks

The Pittsburgh Pirates are cutting it a little close with Derek Curiel. At least, that’s what it looks like from the outside.

With the July 27 signing deadline approaching, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft remains unsigned while Pittsburgh has already finalized deals with 15 of its 21 selections. Considering Curiel is the centerpiece of the entire class, it’s understandable that his name still sitting on the unsigned list would create some anxiety.

But this probably isn’t nearly as dramatic as it appears.

Curiel’s assigned slot value at No. 5 is $8,336,500. The Pirates, however, have only $6,261,300 remaining in their bonus pool after aggressively spending above slot elsewhere in the draft.

Aiden Ruiz, the high school shortstop taken 44th overall, received $3.5 million to steer him away from Vanderbilt. Auburn infielder Chris Rembert signed for $2.4 million, roughly $460,000 above his slot value. Fourth-round outfielder Andruw Giles also received $1 million to bypass his Oregon commitment.

Those deals weren’t accidents — and that’s why Curiel’s eventual bonus almost certainly wasn’t left up to chance, either.

Pirates still expected to sign first-rounder Derek Curiel before Monday's deadline

The Pirates simply don’t select Curiel fifth overall — knowing they intend to devote significant portions of their bonus pool to players later in the draft — without having a very strong understanding of what it will take to sign him.

The appeal of taking Curiel was likely tied directly to his willingness to accept an under-slot bonus. Pittsburgh could then redirect the savings toward players like Ruiz, Rembert and Giles, effectively spreading the value of the No. 5 pick throughout the draft class. In that context, waiting to formally sign Curiel actually makes some sense.

The Pirates had incentive to finish negotiations with many of their other picks first. Had an issue arisen elsewhere — perhaps a medical concern that caused the organization to reduce another player’s bonus, or a negotiation that unexpectedly fell apart — the amount of money available for Curiel could have changed.

There was little reason for the Pirates to lock themselves into his exact figure until the rest of the bonus-pool puzzle was nearly complete.

Could something still go wrong before Monday? Technically, sure. Until Curiel signs, nothing is official. But the Pirates’ entire draft strategy suggests there has been a firm understanding between the two sides all along. You don’t spend millions above slot on subsequent selections and hope your first-round pick eventually agrees to accommodate it.

Curiel’s delay may look ominous on the transaction page. But in reality, it’s probably the final piece of a draft-day plan that Pittsburgh put together weeks ago.

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