Pirates' early-season success is more sustainable than their top rival's

The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to one of their better starts in recent years, riding an imposing pitching staff and a reinvigorated offense to 13 wins in the team's first 22 games. Unfortunately, they're stuck in the NL Central, a division that has as many teams with winning records (five) as the entire American League.

The Central was expected to be a challenge, but not like this. The big-budget Cubs put those resources to work in the offseason, and the ever-pesky Brewers led MLB with 97 wins a season ago and were one of the final four teams standing. Next in line were supposed to be the Pirates and Reds, who are often discussed in the same breath despite Pittsburgh losing 91 games and Cincinnati sneaking into the postseason in 2025.

The Reds currently hold a 1.5-game lead over the Pirates, with Cincinnati's record (16-9) representing one of the best in the Senior Circuit. But Pittsburgh has been the better team so far, and it hasn't really been close.

Looking at run differentials is one way to deduce that those records are at least a little misleading. Even after a blowout win in Tampa, the Reds (despite their 16-9 record) have actually been outscored by two runs, while the Pirates — after losing two out of three to Andrew McCutchen's Rangers — stand at plus-20, a mark topped by only four other clubs.

Cincinnati's hot start has been fueled by some remarkable (and unsustainable) good fortune — they've played in 10 games that were decided by two runs or fewer and have won all of them. That generally coincides with a strong bullpen — and while the Reds lead MLB in bullpen ERA (2.54), that group also has the highest walk rate in the league (14.8%) while being the second-luckiest unit at suppressing home runs (4.7% HR/FB rate, which definitely won't hold up at their home ballpark). As such, their relievers have an expected ERA of 4.16. That differential is, also, by far the league's largest.

Rookie of the Year contender Sal Stewart has been one of baseball's top sluggers and star shortstop Elly De La Cruz continues to be a polarizing power-speed threat. But outside of those two, the Reds' offense has been abysmal. In particular, Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, and ex-Pirate castoff Ke'Bryan Hayes combined for 333 plate appearances (through Monday's games) with an OPS of .480.

The Pirates are more legitimate playoff contenders than the Reds

On the other hand, the Pirates have gotten great early returns from their new-look offense. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn are off to excellent starts, while Marcell Ozuna, who began the year 2-for-his-first-39, recorded a hit in all six games in which he appeared during the team's last homestand, including a pair of impressive home runs.

With more competent hitters in the lineup every day, the top hitters the team returned from last season (Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz) are all performing better than they did in 2025.

Despite the Reds currently leading the Pirates in the NL Central standings, the overall underlying metrics would suggest the opposite going forward:

The Pirates possessing one of the league's top pitching staffs isn't a surprise, but going from last in offense to top-10 is a stunning development. It may not remain quite at that level over a full season, but it's certainly a vastly improved group compared to last season. The Pirates join the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees (probably the consensus three best teams to this point in the season) as the only teams in the top 10 in both of the above metrics.

Meanwhile, the Reds aren't nearly as good as their record would suggest. The offense has been among the worst in the league (even after reuniting with Eugenio Suarez) and their pitching staff is bound to regress closer to the mean.

That pitching group needs to tread water without Nick Lodolo, who is dealing with recurring blisters on his pitching hand, and ace Hunter Greene, who has been sidelined since mid-March with an elbow injury. Cincinnati would be fortunate to have him available on a pitch count in the second half.

There has been tons of buzz surrounding the Pirates ever since the front office decided to actually make a push this past offseason. That hype has carried into the regular season after the team has gotten off to a hot start against some tough competition.

Although they trail the Reds in the standings, the Pirates look like the more complete team, and they're projected to outperform their top rival over the remainder of the season.

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