Pirates face painful Bubba Chandler reality they can’t ignore much longer

The Pittsburgh Pirates' hopes were high for Bubba Chandler coming into 2026. It wasn't just hopium either; the 23-year-old was ranked by Baseball America (subscription required) as the No. 3 right-handed pitching prospect in the sport.

Chandler was supposed to be a phenom, a top-of-the-rotation candidate. Maybe not right away. That's an unreasonable expectation for any youngster, but soon. Now that the season is underway, though, the Pirates have yet to see anything resembling that.

Chandler has made nine starts, but logged just 42 innings. He has topped the five-inning mark in just two starts and reached exactly six innings just once. Efficiency has been an issue, but as his last start on May 16 against the Philadelphia Phillies showed, efficiency is just a symptom of a larger issue.

In just three innings pitched, his shortest outing of the year, Chandler allowed five runs (four earned) with four walks, three hits, and a big 457-foot blast off the bat of Bryce Harper.

"It was a tough start there in the first couple of innings, throwing 60-some pitches in two innings,” Don Kelly said, highlighting Chandler's inefficiency. “To get him out after the third, it was just pitch count and volume, and he slipped on the mound there. Just didn't want to push it there any further. We had enough to get through the game in the bullpen.”

The Pirates need to send Bubba Chandler down to work on his command and confidence

Command is an issue for Chandler. Watching him, you can see that his blazing heater and impressive secondaries can keep hitters off balance. It just doesn't happen enough. The 2021 third-round pick has just a 42nd percentile whiff rate and a 29th percentile chase rate. He's simply not fooling hitters often enough, despite the electric stuff.

Part of the issue is the number of non-competitive pitches Chandler has thrown. Per FanGraphs, his waste-zone percentage, or the frequency with which he throws a pitch so far outside the zone that it isn't a threat to the hitter, is 10%. That ranks 67th out of 97 starters to throw at least 40 innings this year.

There's something to be said for being effectively wild, but when you miss that badly that often, all you're doing is putting yourself behind the eight-ball, which is why Chandler's carrying a 16.4% walk rate thus far.

The other side of that lack of command is when he misses within the zone. When that happens, you see the ball travel a long way, like the Harper homer. It has also led him to overcorrect, as he noted after the Phillies debacle.

“They’re good players,” Chandler said of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Harper, all of whom gave him fits. “I’ve watched them play for the last decade, and they’re all three really good. Just soft, pitching away, just not being who I am.”

Hat tip for the self-awareness. While some have tried to point the finger at who is behind the plate and the game being called, the real issue is in the execution on the mound. Those three stars worked their walks, but they also took big swings that did damage, continuing a season-long trend.

The solution might be sending him down to Indianapolis for a time. That's not a failure, but it's clear that his command is shaky and he's compensating by trying to aim the ball rather than throwing each pitch with conviction. Getting some reps in to fix the command and regain his confidence in his stuff is the key. That'll be hard to do at the big league level. Furthermore, if the Pirates want to compete, they can't afford to allow him to muddle through until he comes out on the other side in the majors.

It's a tough call, but a necessary one. It's best for both Chandler and the club now and in the future, and that has to be the top priority.

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