Pirates cannot ignore frustrating Bubba Chandler trend any longer

Bubba Chandler isn’t failing. That’s what makes this more complicated — and more urgent.

If he were simply overmatched, the Pittsburgh Pirates could write it off as part of the learning curve. But that’s not what this is. Chandler flashes dominance. He shows you the version of himself that looks like a future front-line arm. And then, just as quickly, it unravels.

Across nine big-league starts, the pattern is no longer random noise. It’s a trend. And trends, especially for young pitchers, have a way of hardening into identity if they aren’t addressed early.

The Pirates can’t afford that. Because right now, Chandler is drifting into a dangerous middle ground — too talented to reset, too inconsistent to trust.

Chandler’s raw arsenal still jumps off the page. The velocity is elite. The life on the fastball is real. The chase rate suggests hitters aren’t entirely comfortable. But the foundation underneath it all is shaky.

The walks tell the story. Chandler has given 10 free passes in 19.2 innings this season. His minor-league track record that consistently hovered above 4.0 BB/9. This is who he’s been — and at the major league level, that margin for error disappears.

When Chandler falls behind, he doesn’t have the luxury of nibbling. He has to come into the zone. And when he does, hitters are ready. That’s why the fastball — his best weapon on paper — is getting punished. Velocity used to be a separator. Now it’s an expectation.

Bubba Chandler has the stuff, but Pirates still need to help him develop

Chandler can get to two strikes. He just can’t finish — and that's the gap between potential and production right now. The strikeout numbers don’t match the chase rate. The whiffs don’t come when he needs them most. At-bats extend. Pitch counts climb. Traffic builds. And eventually, something breaks.

Compare that to what the Pirates are getting from the rest of their young core. Paul Skenes overwhelms hitters, but more importantly, he controls sequences. He dictates at-bats. He knows exactly how he wants to get the final out. Braxton Ashcraft doesn’t have the same raw explosiveness, but he’s been relentlessly steady.

Chandler is stuck in between. And until he finds a true put-away pitch — something he trusts when the count tilts in his favor — that won’t change.

The Pirates have done a lot right with their pitching pipeline. But this is the kind of moment that defines whether a system produces arms… or develops pitchers.

Because this isn’t about telling Chandler to “throw strikes.” It’s about giving him a plan. It’s about refining sequencing. It’s about shaping a secondary pitch that can miss bats when hitters are geared up for 100 mph. It’s about teaching him how to pitch when Plan A isn’t working.

Right now, too many of Chandler's outings hinge on whether his fastball overwhelms. That’s not sustainable at this level.

The good news is that there’s still time for Chandler to get this right. But the Pirates can’t treat this as background development anymore — because the longer this pattern continues, the more it risks becoming who he is: electric, unpredictable, and ultimately unreliable.

And for a team trying to build something real behind Skenes, that’s not good enough. Not when the solution — or at least the path to one — is already staring them in the face.

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