Pirates fans will laugh at this desperate Ke’Bryan Hayes narrative from Reds side

The moment Ke’Bryan Hayes started struggling offensively in Cincinnati, it was only a matter of time before the excuses started rolling back in.

Now, instead of simply acknowledging that Hayes has been the same hitter he was for more than five seasons in Pittsburgh, there’s a growing effort to frame him as some deeply misunderstood player who was unfairly burdened by expectations with the Pirates.

The latest version of that argument from C Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic leans heavily on “bad luck” and expected stats, painting Hayes as a victim of circumstance rather than a player with long-established offensive limitations.

Pirates fans know better than to fall for that narrative.

Yes, Hayes is an elite defender. Nobody in Pittsburgh ever denied that. Pirates fans watched him vacuum up everything at third base for more than five seasons. They watched him win Gold Gloves. They watched him make impossible plays look routine. His glove was never the issue.

The problem — the same problem Pirates fans spent years watching — is that he simply does not hit enough to justify the expectations that came with his role and contract. And let’s stop pretending those expectations were somehow unfair.

Hayes signed an eight-year, $70 million extension in 2022 that, at the time, was the largest contract in Pirates franchise history. That matters. When a small-market franchise hands out the biggest deal it has ever given, fans are naturally going to expect more than a .236 batting average with two home runs through 100 games.

Pirates fans didn’t expect Hayes to become Mike Schmidt because they were irrational lunatics. They expected him to become a cornerstone player because the organization marketed him that way and paid him that way.

Reds are reaching hard to explain away Ke’Bryan Hayes offensive problems

What’s especially funny about the current “unluckiest hitter in baseball” defense is that Pirates fans have heard versions of this argument for years. Every season there was some new explanation around the corner. Hard-hit metrics. Back issues. BABIP variance. Expected stats. Bad luck.

At some point, the “bad luck” stops being temporary and starts becoming who the player is offensively.

Hayes has now played parts of seven MLB seasons. He owns a career OPS under .700. He has never hit more than 15 home runs in a season. His slugging percentages routinely sit where light-hitting middle infielders usually live. This isn’t a two-week slump or some bizarre statistical fluke. It’s a massive sample size.

And frankly, Pirates fans probably understand Hayes’ offensive profile better than anyone because they watched the same cycle repeat endlessly. A few games of hard contact would spark “breakout” conversations. Then the ground balls would return. The isolated power would disappear. The production would crater again.

The funniest part of this entire revisionist narrative is the implication that Pittsburgh somehow failed Hayes emotionally by expecting him to hit like a player making franchise-record money.

Nobody forced Hayes to sign that extension. Nobody unfairly burdened him by believing a former top prospect entering his prime years should produce more offensively than a defense-first utility player. Those expectations came directly with the contract and the role.

And if Reds fans think this is just rotten luck that will magically disappear, Pirates fans have a bridge to sell them. Pittsburgh already sat through this movie for five and a half years.

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