The latest CBA proposal from MLB's owners offers a pretty good glimpse into why so many expect there to be a long lockout in 2027. The deal includes both a salary floor and a salary cap, as well as a plan for standardizing revenue from television broadcasts and other media streams.
BREAKING: As expected, MLB proposed a hard salary cap to union officials today as part of the next CBA, sources tell ESPN. The salary floor for teams beginning in 2027 would be set at $171.2 million which includes player benefits with the ceiling at $245.3 million.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) May 28, 2026
On the surface, such a proposal makes sense. It forces the penny pinchers to spend, and it keeps the whales from utterly dominating the market. The problem is that owners on both ends of that spectrum won't want to forcibly pushed toward a middle ground, and you can be absolutely sure that the players union won't accept any deal involving a hard cap.
MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer statement on MLB's cap proposal:
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) May 28, 2026
"The last time the owners made such an explicit push for a cap—over 30 years ago—it led to the longest work stoppage in MLB history. For generations, our members have fought against cap systems..." pic.twitter.com/dorc3kipN8
Of course, this is merely just the first round of negotiating; the next sixth months will elucidate the future economics of the sport in more accurate terms. But this proposal does introduce a key bargaining tool that the owners will push, and one that should scare the heck out of Bob Nutting: the salary floor.
Pirates fans should expect Bob Nutting to vote against fellow owners in any CBA proposal involving a salary floor
In truth, the salary floor isn't actually quite as aggressive as it may appear on first glance, since that $171.2 million figure includes benefits, healthcare, league-mandated expenses, and bonuses, all of which can add up to $30 million or more in a given season. Still, a team like the Pirates would need to boost their salary-related spending by around 30% just to meet the proposed threshold, which is not an insignificant amount.
Nutting, who did finally increase spending last winter, will not be thrilled about being forced to do so again. For reference, the team's year-end payroll in 2025 was roughly $87 million, which they've pushed up to $108 million for 2026. That's a $21 million jump. To get to the proposed floor, even when accounting for benefits and bonuses, they'd likely need to double that leap next offseason.
Of course, that's great news for fans. Something like a Brandon Lowe extension shifts from being a luxury to a necessity. Maybe the team could even bite down on the bullet hard enough to sign Paul Skenes to a historic, long-term contract.
Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but that's the benefit of a salary floor, and why the league will push the idea so hard to fans and the media. Conceptually, such a mechanism guarantees improved parity around the league. In practice it may not be so clean, but baseball needs a way to force teams like the Pirates and Marlins to spend on par with their bigger-market contemporaries.
You can bet that Nutting won't be voting in favor of any proposal involving a salary floor for that reason, but it's looking exceedingly likely that the majority of owners won't be taking his side.
