The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't getting Mitch Keller back before the 2026 season ends, but they did receive some quietly significant news about one of the most important pieces of their 2027 rotation.
Keller didn't travel with the Pirates for their final series in Detroit, but he says he feels really good as he continues recovering from the teres major injury that ended his season in August. More importantly, Keller expects to have a semi-normal offseason when it comes to throwing and building back up.
Considering what happened to Pittsburgh's rotation without him, that's no small development.
Keller's 2026 numbers weren't pretty. He finished 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.375 WHIP across 22 starts and 115 2/3 innings, striking out 89 while walking 42. His 84 ERA+ and 4.55 FIP reflected a season that fell well short of expectations. But Keller's absence also reinforced something his ERA doesn't capture: availability has value.
Just spoke with Mitch Keller in the clubhouse here today. He said he feels fully healthy and hasn’t thrown still since the injury.
— Aiden Stepansky (@AidenStepansky) September 23, 2026
He expects to start throwing some time in late October.
Pirates missed Mitch Keller as a stabilizing force in their young rotation
Before this season, Keller had made 31 starts and thrown 178 innings in 2024, then followed that with 32 starts and 176 1/3 innings in 2025. He had essentially become Pittsburgh's rotation metronome — someone the Pirates could expect to take the ball every fifth day and consume a significant chunk of the season's innings.
Once that disappeared, the Pirates' depth was tested quickly. Braxton Ashcraft eventually landed on the injured list. Jared Jones returned but had his workload managed. Pittsburgh spent September piecing together multiple rotation spots with bullpen games and bulk appearances from pitchers such as Khristian Curtis, Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly.
That made Keller's importance easier to appreciate. Nobody should pretend a 5.29 ERA was good enough. Keller needs to be considerably better in 2027, especially for a pitcher entering the fourth season of a five-year, $77 million contract. But the Pirates also don't necessarily need him to be their ace anymore.
Paul Skenes, Jones, Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler have changed that equation. What Pittsburgh needs from Keller is something less exciting but arguably just as important: 30 starts, 170-plus innings and dependable major-league performance in the middle of the rotation.
The Pirates learned this season how quickly a seemingly deep rotation can become thin. That's why Keller entering the offseason without a major rehabilitation hanging over him matters.
For a team that has already missed the postseason and should enter 2027 with very little patience left for excuses, getting its veteran innings-eater back to normal could provide considerably more stability than his disappointing 2026 numbers suggest.
