Pirates handed golden opportunity after rival ace suffers setback

The National League Central rarely follows the script. Just when the division begins to look defined, something shifts the balance. This time, the tremor came from Cincinnati.

When Reds ace Hunter Greene revealed he’s heading for an MRI after renewed elbow stiffness, it immediately introduced uncertainty into what had quietly become one of the most dangerous rotations in the division. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s the kind of development that can subtly reshape the NL Central race before Opening Day even arrives.

But it also comes with an uncomfortable reminder — because the Pirates are living on the same razor’s edge.

On paper, the Reds’ rotation had the makings of a serious weapon. Greene had developed into a true frontline arm over the past two seasons, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 29.2% strikeout rate across his last 45 starts. His 15.4% swinging-strike rate last year ranked among the best in baseball — trailing only a handful of elite names like Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert.

Pair Greene with Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and elite prospects Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, and Cincinnati suddenly looked like a club capable of overwhelming opponents with pitching. Now? Everything becomes less certain.

Even if Greene ultimately avoids surgery, elbow imaging this early in March introduces the possibility of missed time. And for a Reds team built heavily around its young pitching depth, losing the rotation’s anchor — even temporarily — dramatically alters the calculus.

Reds' Hunter Greene injury update could alter NL Central race for Pirates

For the Pirates, this is the type of development that quietly increases the margin for error. Pittsburgh enters 2026 with real momentum, led by reigning NL CY Young winner Paul Skenes and a handful of offseason additions providing him with much-needed run support.

But the NL Central race was shaping up as a battle of rotations, and the Reds and Pirates both looked built around elite power arms and emerging pitching depth. If Greene misses meaningful time, the Pirates’ path becomes noticeably clearer. One elite arm disappearing from the divisional chessboard changes the entire opening.

At the same time, Greene’s situation should send a chill through Pittsburgh. Because no team understands the fragility of pitching better than the Pirates. Their rotation — not to mention their entire competitive window — revolves around Skenes.

The Pirates are betting that Skenes can anchor a contender for years to come. His combination of power stuff, command and durability has already made him one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers. But every ace exists in the same ecosystem of risk. Elbows are unpredictable. Pitchers are fragile. A single MRI can change a season.

The Pirates’ margin for error shrinks dramatically if something similar ever happens in Pittsburgh, and that reality is why the organization has spent so much effort building depth around Skenes — with Keller, Jones, prospects like Bubba Chandler, and a growing pipeline of arms behind them.

The season hasn’t started yet, but the chessboard is shifting. If Greene misses time, the Reds become more vulnerable. If he returns healthy, Cincinnati’s ceiling remains incredibly high. Either way, Pittsburgh suddenly has an opportunity — but the Pirates know better than anyone that opportunities created by pitching injuries are temporary.

The same forces reshaping Cincinnati’s season today could reshape Pittsburgh’s tomorrow. And in a division where elite pitching might ultimately decide everything, every MRI — whether in Cincinnati or Pittsburgh — suddenly matters just a little bit more.