Pirates insider fuels Henry Davis hope fans should be careful buying

In suggesting that a breakout could be just around the corner, Pittsburgh Pirates insider Jason Mackey just gave fans the most dangerous thing possible with Henry Davis: hope.

And to be fair, the case is not totally empty. Davis’ go-ahead home run Monday against the Chicago Cubs was a massive swing in a 2-1 win. It traveled 413 feet, came in a huge spot and offered a glimpse of the player the Pirates still desperately want him to become. Mackey also pointed to some encouraging underlying numbers, including Davis ranking second among Pirates hitters in May xwOBA entering Memorial Day despite a brutal .111 average for the month.

But that's where this gets complicated, because Pirates fans have seen this movie before. Davis has had stretches where the process looked better, the exit velocities looked promising, the swing decisions seemed improved and the organization insisted the results were coming. Then the league adjusted, the strikeouts piled up, the weak contact returned and Davis once again looked like a former No. 1 overall pick who could not be trusted to provide consistent offense at the Major League level.

That does not mean Davis’ work ethic should be questioned. By all accounts, it shouldn’t be. Teammates and coaches rave about his preparation, his attitude and the way he handles pitchers. There is certainly value in a catcher who cares, prepares, and does not let offensive frustration bleed into the defensive side.

But Pirates fans are not wrong to need more than glowing clubhouse reviews and expected stats.

Pirates fans should be cautious before falling for organization's latest Henry Davis propaganda

Davis entered Monday with five hits in May. Four of them were home runs, which is both encouraging and alarming. The power is real when he connects, but the lack of consistent contact and production still leaves Pittsburgh with a very difficult evaluation. A few loud swings can change a game. They do not automatically change a career arc.

That is especially true with Endy Rodríguez already forcing the conversation. If Rodríguez keeps producing, the Pirates can't afford to hand Davis unlimited runway based on pedigree, effort or the promise of better luck. Joey Bart’s injury buys Davis some time, but it should not buy him unquestioned status.

Maybe Mackey is right that a breakout is closer than the surface numbers suggest. Maybe the BABIP correction comes, the swing changes hold and Davis finally becomes a real offensive threat.

But Pirates fans have been sold the Henry Davis breakout before. Until this version lasts longer than a few weeks, cautious optimism is the only reasonable response.

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