Pirates' latest Brandon Lowe contract projection exposes an embarrassing 12-year reality

Somehow, Francisco Liriano is still setting the market for ambition in Pittsburgh. Nearly 12 years after the Pirates brought him back on a three-year, $39 million deal in December 2014, they have yet to sign a free agent for more. That’s still the franchise record. Baseball has spent more than a decade moving the decimal point, and the Pirates still haven’t cleared the same old number.

Brandon Lowe’s projected payday makes that history look even worse. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects a four-year, $80 million contract for Lowe. His actual deal could land elsewhere, but the comparison is already quite brutal. At that price, keeping him would require the Pirates to more than double the largest free-agent commitment they’ve ever made. That would qualify as a milestone in Pittsburgh, which tells us plenty about how low the bar has been.

So, we’re talking about keeping a player who already wears the uniform, and the starting point for the conversation is whether this franchise can venture into financial territory it should have explored years ago.

Brandon Lowe could double the record the Pirates keep hiding behind

An $80 million commitment is nothing to sneeze at. Four years for a 32-year-old second baseman carries real risk, and the Pirates should take a hard look at what they’d be paying for in those later seasons. They’ve already put a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer on the table, so there’s some willingness to spend here. The bigger question is whether they’re ready to make a longer commitment. If they’re serious about keeping Lowe, that’s a conversation they should have.

But Pittsburgh’s spending history hangs over the discussion before we even get that far. A projected $20 million AAV has us wondering whether ownership will approve the biggest free-agent deal in franchise history. We’re stuck debating whether the Pirates will open their checkbook before we can even get into whether Lowe is worth the money.

The Liriano contract has survived long enough to become a reference point for one disappointing offseason after another. Every winter that passes makes that record harder to defend. At some point, the Pirates should identify a player worth paying and get the deal done. Instead, we keep dragging a December 2014 transaction into conversations about how serious ownership is about building a contender.

We’ve gotten way too used to the financial limits around this team. Lowe just delivered 35 homers, 96 RBI and an .824 OPS in 2026, and we’re already wondering whether Pittsburgh will pay to keep that kind of power at second base.

There’s always another way to explain how the Pirates might survive losing somebody. But how exactly are they planning to get better?

Keeping Lowe would preserve a major piece of the lineup. They would still need to build around him, fill other holes and give the roster enough depth to get through a full season. A record contract is just the first step, but they'd still have to finish the job.

Lowe’s eventual contract could land above or below ESPN's projection. The Pirates could decide another player offers better value. Either way, they still owe their fans a roster with a better chance to win.

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