Pirates qualifying offer history gives Brandon Lowe two very different paths

The Pittsburgh Pirates have officially extended a qualifying offer to Brandon Lowe, marking just the third time in franchise history that they've taken advantage of the mechanism since its introduction in 2012.

The first two times? Well, they couldn't have ended much differently.

The Pirates' only previous qualifying offers went to Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano in November 2014. Both rejected the one-year, $15.3 million offers, but one eventually returned to Pittsburgh on a lucrative multiyear contract while the other departed for greener pastures.

Now, 12 years later, the Pirates find themselves facing a remarkably similar situation with Lowe. And their own history offers two very different possibilities for how this offseason could unfold.

Pirates' history with Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano offers a warning — and some hope — for Brandon Lowe

Martin's departure remains one of the more frustrating free-agent losses in recent Pirates history. After helping Pittsburgh reach the postseason in consecutive seasons, the veteran catcher rejected his qualifying offer and signed a five-year, $82 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Pirates received a compensatory draft pick for losing Martin, which they used to select Ke'Bryan Hayes with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft. Regardless of whether Hayes panned out long-term (spoiler: he didn't), that compensation did little to replace Martin's immediate impact on a team hoping to remain competitive.

Liriano's situation, however, proved that rejecting a qualifying offer doesn't necessarily mean a player is leaving Pittsburgh. The left-hander also declined his $15.3 million offer, only to return to the Pirates weeks later on a three-year, $39 million contract. Rather than settling for a one-year agreement, Liriano secured the long-term financial commitment he wanted without leaving the organization.

Both outcomes are worth remembering as Lowe prepares to make his own decision. The 31-year-old second baseman is coming off an outstanding debut season in Pittsburgh, hitting .260 with 35 home runs, 96 RBI and an .824 OPS. He also emerged as one of baseball's best defensive second basemen, earning a National League Gold Glove nomination.

Lowe's contributions were instrumental in helping the Pirates finish 82-80, their first winning season since 2018. And much like Martin in 2014, Lowe now has an opportunity to turn that success into a substantial payday elsewhere.

The Pirates' qualifying offer is worth $23.15 million for 2027, but Lowe is widely expected to pursue a multiyear contract rather than accept a one-year deal. That doesn't necessarily mean Pittsburgh is out of the running.

Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden recently projected Lowe to receive a three-year, $45 million contract in free agency. That's a significant commitment by the Pirates' historically conservative standards, but it's hardly an unreasonable price for a player who just established himself as one of their most important offensive contributors.

And as the Liriano situation demonstrated, the Pirates are capable of retaining a player after he rejects their qualifying offer. The question is whether they're willing to do it again.

Of course, there's an important distinction between extending Lowe a qualifying offer and actually committing to keeping him. The former requires Pittsburgh to make a relatively straightforward financial decision, while the latter would require owner Bob Nutting and general manager Ben Cherington to demonstrate a willingness to invest in the roster beyond a single season.

That's where the Russell Martin comparison becomes particularly uncomfortable.

The Pirates have spent years searching for the kind of offensive production Lowe provided in 2026. Losing him after just one season would leave Cherington scrambling to replace a proven middle-of-the-order bat while simultaneously addressing the other holes that prevented Pittsburgh from reaching the postseason. Draft-pick compensation would soften the blow, but it wouldn't help the Pirates win games in 2027.

Ultimately, Lowe's qualifying offer represents a meaningful first step, but Pittsburgh's history suggests it shouldn't be mistaken for a guarantee of anything.

Twelve years ago, the Pirates watched one important veteran leave for a richer contract while convincing another to stay. Now, they have an opportunity to determine which precedent they'll follow.

If the Pirates are serious about building on their first winning season in eight years, they should be doing everything possible to make sure Lowe's story ends more like Liriano's than Martin's.

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