Pirates' latest power-hitting breakout raises an uncomfortable question about Oneil Cruz

The Pittsburgh Pirates already have one player capable of hitting baseballs at velocities that barely seem physically possible. Now, another is making his way through their minor league system.

Tony Blanco Jr. has emerged as one of the most intriguing power-hitting prospects in Pittsburgh's organization, and the comparisons to Oneil Cruz practically write themselves.

Both stand 6-foot-7. Both possess extraordinary raw power. Both are capable of producing exit velocities that put them in some exceptionally rare company.

Unfortunately, they share something else, too: a concerning tendency to swing and miss.

And while Cruz has developed into a productive major league hitter, his journey offers a cautionary tale about the difference between possessing elite physical tools and consistently translating them into offensive production.

For the Pirates, Blanco's emergence raises an uncomfortable question: Have they learned enough from developing Cruz to avoid making the same mistakes with their next potential superstar?

Oneil Cruz's development should serve as a lesson for Pirates with Tony Blanco Jr.

Blanco's 2026 campaign provided perhaps the strongest evidence yet that his remarkable physical tools can translate into legitimate offensive production.

The 21-year-old first baseman hit .253 with 25 home runs, 60 RBI and an .896 OPS across 84 games, primarily at High-A Greensboro. Those numbers become even more remarkable when considering the sheer force with which Blanco hits the baseball.

During the 2025 Arizona Fall League, Blanco crushed a 464-foot home run and recorded a 120.4 mph double. He also won the Fall Stars Home Run Derby, launching one ball at an astonishing 122.9 mph. Those are the kinds of numbers that have made Cruz a Statcast sensation throughout his major league career.

But while Blanco's power is undeniable, the questions surrounding his offensive approach are equally difficult to ignore. Blanco entered 2026 with a career strikeout rate of 35.1%. He improved that figure to 29.5% this season, representing meaningful progress but still leaving considerable room for improvement.

Blanco still needs to prove that he can consistently recognize pitches, control the strike zone and make enough contact to access that extraordinary power against increasingly sophisticated pitching.

Sound familiar?

Few players in baseball have generated as much excitement through their physical tools as Cruz, yet his major league career has also demonstrated just how difficult it can be to turn those tools into consistent offensive success.

In 2025, Cruz hit just .200 with a .676 OPS despite launching 20 home runs and stealing 38 bases. His prodigious power remained intact, but too many at-bats ended without meaningful contact.

To his credit, Cruz responded with a considerably stronger 2026 season. He hit .280 with an .854 OPS, 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 97 games, delivering some of the best offensive production of his career despite missing significant time with a hand injury. His improvement reinforces the argument that players with Cruz's physical gifts can become substantially more productive when their offensive approach begins to catch up.

Still, Cruz struck out in more than 33% of his plate appearances in 2026. Even during his most productive stretches, swing-and-miss remained a significant part of his offensive profile.

Blanco faces a similar challenge, although his path to the majors will be different. Unlike Cruz, whose speed and athleticism provide additional ways to contribute, Blanco profiles primarily as a first baseman. That places an even greater burden on his bat.

If his power doesn't translate into consistent production against advanced pitching, Blanco won't have nearly as many alternative ways to provide value. In other words, the Pirates will need to prioritize more than power in his development.

The encouraging news is that Blanco appears to understand what needs to change. In an October interview with MLB.com, he acknowledged that pitchers had learned to exploit his aggressiveness by tempting him to chase pitches outside his preferred hitting areas.

That's precisely the kind of development Pittsburgh should be encouraging, along with keeping him healthy. Blanco's 84 games in 2026 represented a substantial improvement after injuries had repeatedly limited his playing time in previous seasons. More consistent opportunities against quality pitching will be essential as he advances through the minor leagues.

There's no guarantee that Blanco will follow Cruz's developmental trajectory, nor would it be fair to characterize Cruz as a failed prospect. His 2026 performance demonstrated exactly why the Pirates have remained committed to his enormous potential.

But Pittsburgh should recognize the broader lesson. Raw power might get a prospect noticed, but plate discipline, pitch recognition and consistent contact ultimately determine how much of that power translates into major league production.

The Pirates have already spent years working to unlock Cruz's full offensive potential. They shouldn't have to relearn those lessons with Blanco. Instead of developing another player who can produce the hardest-hit baseball of the season, they should be focused on turning that exceptional power into dependable offensive production.

Whether Blanco becomes that player will depend less on how far he can hit the ball and more on how effectively the Pirates help him develop everything else.

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