Pirates may learn replacing Brandon Lowe is the more expensive option

The Pittsburgh Pirates are going to have to pay somebody this offseason. The question is whether they finally realize the easiest person to pay might be Brandon Lowe.

Lowe is approaching free agency after giving the Pirates the legitimate, middle-of-the-order power they desperately needed when they acquired him. The veteran second baseman has been one of the driving forces behind an offense that took a massive step forward from where it was a year ago.

Naturally, that performance is going to make Lowe expensive. It also might make replacing him even more expensive.

The obvious internal replacement would be Nick Gonzales. Gonzales has actually put together a nice season, batting .305 with a .760 OPS. But he has hit just six home runs. Going from Lowe to Gonzales at second base might save Pittsburgh considerable money, but it would also remove nearly 30 home runs from a lineup that can't afford to casually surrender that kind of production.

So where do those home runs come from? Maybe the Pirates sign a third baseman. Maybe they add an outfielder. Maybe they spread Lowe's production across two different additions. Every one of those solutions costs money, prospects or both — and this isn't shaping up to be a market where Pittsburgh can simply find another Lowe hiding in the clearance section.

MLB.com recently ranked Lowe sixth among the upcoming free agents and noted that, since 2020, he leads all second basemen in home runs while ranking near the top of the position in slugging percentage and OPS. CBS Sports similarly placed him among its top 10 free agents, highlighting how rare 30-homer power is from a middle infielder.

The Pirates already found the hitter they needed. They know he fits their ballpark. They know he fits their clubhouse. They know he can hit in the middle of their lineup. They know he can handle Pittsburgh. Lowe has also expressed openness to remaining with the organization rather than treating free agency as an automatic exit.

There is risk, of course. Lowe will be 32 next season, strikes out plenty and has dealt with injuries throughout his career. Giving a multi-year contract to a player on the wrong side of 30 isn't without danger.

But Pittsburgh shouldn't evaluate Lowe's price in a vacuum. If letting him leave creates another enormous offensive hole, the Pirates then have to spend their offseason finding someone else to fill it — while also addressing the other holes that already existed. That's how trying to save money can become expensive.

The Pirates spent years assembling enough pitching and young talent to reach the point where meaningful expectations exist. Their next step isn't supposed to be subtracting one of the biggest reasons the offense finally became respectable and hoping they can manufacture his production somewhere else.

Maybe Lowe's market reaches a level Pittsburgh simply cannot justify. But if the difference is merely that retaining him feels uncomfortable by Pirates standards, that's not a strong enough excuse anymore.

The Pirates already know what Brandon Lowe costs. This winter, they might discover how much more expensive replacing him can be.

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