Pirates NL Wild Card hopes are hanging by a thread after Cubs series

The Pittsburgh Pirates avoided the worst possible outcome Sunday. They did not, however, avoid the larger problem.

Pittsburgh escaped Wrigley Field without being swept, but the series loss to the Chicago Cubs may ultimately prove to be the moment the Pirates' already-faint postseason hopes slipped beyond reach. At 75-75, Pittsburgh is technically still alive in the National League Wild Card race.

"Technically" is doing a lot of work there. With only 12 games remaining, the Pirates sit 6.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Arizona Diamondbacks are still four games ahead of Pittsburgh, meaning the Pirates still need multiple teams in front of them to stumble while they essentially stop losing altogether.

The Pirates can celebrate avoiding a sweep at the hands of a division rival. They can point to the fact that they are still sitting at .500 after spending much of the second half trying to claw their way back into relevance. They can tell themselves there is still a path as long as the standings say they haven't officially been eliminated.

But the road is almost gone.

Pirates painfully wasted a golden chance to save their playoff hopes vs Cubs

At this stage, simply winning series is no longer enough. Pittsburgh needed to make up substantial ground in Chicago and instead lost another precious opportunity. Every loss now carries disproportionate weight because there is no longer enough schedule remaining to recover from even a short skid.

The Pirates entered September needing something close to a miracle. They have played better baseball recently and kept themselves on the outer edge of the playoff conversation, but the margin for error disappeared weeks ago. Losing two of three at Wrigley only reinforced just how unforgiving the situation has become.

Pittsburgh now needs a near-perfect finish combined with help from San Diego, Arizona and potentially everyone else crowding the Wild Card picture. Could it happen? Mathematically, yes. Should anyone expect it? Absolutely not. And that may be the most frustrating part of all.

The Pirates have done just enough to keep fans checking the standings, calculating elimination numbers and convincing themselves that one more winning streak could change everything. But with 12 games left and 6.5 games still separating Pittsburgh from a playoff spot, hope has become less about probability and more about technicality.

Sunday's win kept the Pirates alive. But the series loss may have made that distinction meaningless.

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