Pirates offseason rotation plan starts with one massive Mitch Keller decision

Thinking long and hard about the Pittsburgh Pirates' offseason wishlist brings about several key needs. The top of that list is headed by retaining Brandon Lowe, but beyond that, the club could use another starter (particularly of the left-handed variety), a big right-handed bat, a bullpen arm or two, an upgraded piece or two for the bench, and possibly a new third baseman.

Outside of retaining Lowe, the biggest need is in the rotation. Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, and Jared Jones are locks. Bubba Chandler is likely in there as well. Wilber Dotel will make his case for a rotation spot, though he could prove to be a solid internal bullpen solution. Then that brings us to Mitch Keller.

Keller had long been on the trade block, with the sales pitch being that he was an innings-eating rotation stabilizer on a moderately priced contract. 2026 turned that on its head. The 30-year-old righty did not stabilize Pittsburgh's rotation, posting a 5.29 ERA on the season. He also did not eat innings, missing the final two months of the year with a right shoulder strain.

What's left now is a bounce-back candidate who is owed just shy of $39 million over the next two seasons. Keller was never going to generate a huge trade return, but now we're talking about a salary dump.

With that in mind, Pirates insider Noah Hiles correctly pointed out on the Bucco Territory Podcast that the only way for Pittsburgh to make a significant external addition to the rotation is to find a way to trade Keller.

A Mitch Keller trade is a start, but the Pirates will need more investment from Bob Nutting

Even with trading Keller, the Pirates likely won't have enough money to do everything that they want to do if they upgrade the starting rotation. With so many right-handed power pitchers in tow, Pittsburgh would be wise to add a crafty lefty starter, but if payroll remains flat, it will be hard for the organization to check off all its offseason needs.

Per Spotrac, the Pirates' adjusted payroll for 2026 was $106.7 million. Pittsburgh has very few major league free agents coming off the books this offseason, with Lowe, Gregory Soto, and the retiring Kirby Yates representing the lot.

That trio represents about $22 million in breathing room from last year's payroll, but that's before accounting for arbitration raises. On top of that, if the club is going to retain Lowe, things will get pricey.

The Pirates likely tag Lowe with the qualifying offer, which will be just north of $23 million. Coming off a 35-homer campaign, it's unlikely that Lowe takes the one-year security that the QO provides, but the draft-pick compensation could help depress his market while Pittsburgh works on a longer-term deal.

That $23 million number, give or take, could be a starting point for a contract in the three-year range for the star second baseman. At 32 years old, Lowe's unlikely to get much more long-term security than that.

However, that eats up basically all of the Pirates' available budget before arbitration cases are even factored in. That's why freeing Keller's roughly $18 million salary is paramount. With that cash freed up, Pittsburgh could target a southpaw who better fits the rotation.

But even then, the club is still likely to come in over the 2026 payroll number, and it hasn't solved third base, gotten a right-handed power bat, or upgraded the bench. The bullpen hasn't been reinforced, either.

So while trading Keller is a step in the right direction and will help fill the Pirates' second-biggest need after re-signing Lowe, they're going to need owner Bob Nutting to authorize more spending. If he doesn't, the outlook for 2027 won't be much different than 2026: a team that is more competitive than in years past, but ultimately falls short of truly contending for a playoff spot.

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