Pirates' Paul Skenes warned about potential issue that may explain his 2026 regression

Paul Skenes knew long before his disappointing 2026 season that one aspect of his pitching mechanics would require constant attention throughout his career. Now, that same issue could offer some insight into why the Pittsburgh Pirates' ace took such a noticeable step backward.

Back in May 2025, Skenes told Dejan Kovacevic of DK Pittsburgh Sports that he would need to monitor his arm slot throughout his career. At 6-foot-6, with unusually long arms and plenty of moving parts in his delivery, maintaining consistent mechanics would always require some extra maintenance.

At the time, Skenes' arm slot had dipped slightly during April before returning to its previous position. He didn't believe the temporary adjustment had negatively affected his stuff or command. But fast-forward to 2026, and that seemingly minor mechanical concern looks considerably more interesting.

After winning the National League Cy Young Award with a 1.97 ERA in 2025, Skenes finished 2026 with a 3.82 ERA. His strikeout rate remained impressive at 28.1%, and his 4.2 FanGraphs WAR ranked 12th among qualified starters, but he wasn't nearly as dominant as Pittsburgh had grown accustomed to seeing.

Much of the conversation surrounding his regression focused on declining fastball velocity and the potential effects of his World Baseball Classic participation. However, a closer examination of his arsenal reveals another troubling development.

Paul Skenes' changeup regression raises questions about his mechanics

As MLB Trade Rumors recently highlighted, Skenes' changeup went from one of his most effective weapons to arguably his biggest liability. In 2025, opposing hitters managed just a .103 batting average and .126 slugging percentage against the pitch. Those numbers ballooned to .233 and .384, respectively, in 2026.

Perhaps even more alarming, the changeup's run value plummeted from plus-nine to minus-six. It also lost 1.8 inches of vertical drop and half an inch of horizontal movement, making it a flatter, straighter offering.

According to the analysis, Skenes delivered his pitches from an arm slot approximately two to four degrees higher in 2026 than in previous seasons. And that's where his comments from 2025 become particularly relevant.

It's impossible to definitively blame the changeup's decline on that adjustment alone, but the connection is worth investigating. A higher release angle could have altered the pitch's movement or made it easier for hitters to recognize.

The effects were especially noticeable against left-handed batters, whom Skenes attacks more frequently with his changeup. His strikeout rate against lefties dropped from 31.5% in 2025 to 26.7% in 2026, while their OPS against him increased by 83 points.

Of course, the mechanical adjustment doesn't explain everything. Skenes also acknowledged that pitching in the World Baseball Classic may have contributed to his declining fastball velocity, and his substantial workload over the past three seasons raises legitimate questions about fatigue.

Still, there is reason for optimism. Skenes didn't suddenly become an ineffective pitcher. His underlying metrics remained strong, including a 3.28 expected ERA, and his struggles might be less about diminishing talent than restoring the consistency that made him nearly unhittable.

The Pirates should be encouraged that Skenes recognized the importance of monitoring his mechanics before this problem potentially emerged. That awareness could prove invaluable as he prepares for 2027.

Pittsburgh needs its ace performing at his absolute best if it hopes to turn its first winning season since 2018 into a legitimate postseason push. And if a relatively subtle mechanical adjustment can help Skenes rediscover his dominant changeup, his return to Cy Young form might be closer than his 2026 numbers suggest.

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