Pirates' recent free agent connection would be a massive offensive risk

The Pittsburgh Pirates have apparently been quite active when it comes to going after free agents, a very unusual sight for fans. One player they’ve recently been connected to is Munetaka Murakami, who was posted by his NPB club, the Yakult Swallows, during November. While it may be exciting to some to hear the Pirates are in the running for yet another top slugger, let’s pump the brakes. This is not a player that Pirates fans should be demanding. 

On paper, not wanting Murakami sounds crazy. Sure, he was injured for part of last season, but he had an astounding .273/.373/.663 triple-slash, .462 wOBA, and 211 wRC+. It only took Murakami 224 plate appearances over 53 games to hit 22 home runs. His isolated slugging percentage was nearly .400, clocking in at .390. Power is the name of Murakami’s game. He has 245 home runs since his first full season in 2019, the most in NPB. Fellow Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto, who is also looking for a contract in MLB, finished right behind him with 214. Murakami also hit a record-setting 56 dingers for a Japan-born player in NPB in 2022.

The biggest thing the Pirates can add to their lineup is power. They only hit 117 home runs in 2025. They ranked 30th in home runs, with the St. Louis Cardinals, who ranked 29th, leaving them in the dust with 145 long balls. The Bucs also had a .119 ISO, compared to the Cards’ .134 mark. To say the Pirates were powerless would be an understatement. That marks the fewest home runs hit by any team in a non-COVID season since the 2015 Atlanta Braves, a team that lost 95 games. Even the 2020 COVID Dodgers hit 118 home runs, one more than the 2025 Pirates.

The Pirates' offseason can't hinge on signing Munetaka Murakami.

But don’t get too caught up in Murakami’s surface-level stats. There are some massive question marks he needs to answer in MLB, and the Pirates do not have time to solve them. While he has prolific power, his 28.8% strikeout rate over the last three seasons is the highest among NPB hitters with 1,000+ plate appearances. He had a contact rate of just 63.9% in 2025, which wasn’t even a career low. In 2024, he made contact just 63% of the time. Murakami’s swinging strike rate was 17.3%.

This would make him one of the worst batters in baseball at making contact with the ball. Over the last three MLB seasons, there have been 856 times a batter had 300 or more plate appearances. In that time, only 10 had a contact rate under 64%. Of those 10, only three put up a wRC+ over 100: 2023 Joey Gallo, 2023 Luke Raley, and 2023 Jose Siri. 

Murakami is striking out and struggling to make contact against NPB pitching. The average fastball in NPB as of 2024 was 91.28 MPH. When Murakami faces 93+ MPH, he hits for a respectable .760 OPS and 121 wRC+, but that’s a clear step down from the bottom line of his career. 93+ is what he’s mostly going to see in MLB, as nearly 40% of total pitchers last year clocked in at 93+ MPH, and nearly 20% were 93+ MPH and in the strike zone. 

It also doesn’t help that Murakami is not a strong defensive third baseman. Baseball America grades his fielding out as a 40 on the 20-80 scale, which is below average. First base isn’t an option, given the Pirates have Spencer Horwitz. He could be a designated hitter option, but that puts even more pressure on him to perform with the bat.

The Pirates do not have the resources to risk investing in Murakami. They need hitting that they know will likely provide them positive value, not hitting that already has problems making contact against lesser pitching. The Pirates should be using that money to invest in either Ryan O’Hearn or Murakami’s fellow countryman, Kazuma Okamoto (who the Pirates have been linked to). Both players come with far less risk.