Pirates' troubling Arizona Fall League results expose an uncomfortable pitching development question

The Pittsburgh Pirates have built a reputation for developing young pitchers. But one of their former top draft picks is becoming an increasingly uncomfortable reminder that identifying talent and developing it are two very different things.

Right-hander Zander Mueth entered the Arizona Fall League hoping to salvage something from another disappointing season. Instead, his struggles have only intensified. Through five appearances for the Glendale Desert Dogs, Mueth has posted an alarming 22.09 ERA, allowing nine earned runs and issuing 10 walks in just 3 2/3 innings. He's struck out only four batters while recording a staggering 4.64 WHIP.

Those numbers would be concerning for any pitching prospect. But they're particularly troubling for someone the Pirates invested $1.8 million in just three years ago.

Pirates' Zander Mueth struggles raise questions beyond Arizona Fall League

Pittsburgh selected Mueth with the 67th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, betting on the considerable upside of a 6-foot-6 high school right-hander with an unusual delivery and electric stuff.

It wasn't an unreasonable gamble. Mueth's fastball has reached 99 mph, and he earned Florida Complex League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2024. But the development everyone anticipated has yet to materialize.

Three years after being drafted, Mueth hasn't advanced beyond Low-A Bradenton. In 2025, he walked 25 batters in 22 innings at that level. He returned in 2026 and somehow struggled even more, recording a 9.18 ERA with 33 walks against just 28 strikeouts across 33⅓ innings.

Injuries have undoubtedly complicated Mueth's development, limiting his opportunities to establish consistency. That's an important distinction, particularly for a 21-year-old pitcher who still has time to figure things out. But the persistent inability to throw strikes is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.

The Pirates have already begun experimenting with a potential solution, transitioning Mueth into a relief role late in the regular season and continuing that approach in Arizona. The idea is straightforward: Shorter outings could allow him to simplify his approach, maximize his velocity and focus on attacking hitters rather than navigating an entire lineup.

Unfortunately, his Fall League results suggest that changing his role hasn't immediately solved the underlying problem. And that's where the larger organizational question comes into focus.

Pittsburgh deserves credit for developing pitchers like Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Braxton Ashcraft. Those successes have helped establish pitching development as one of the franchise's greatest strengths. But a development system shouldn't be evaluated exclusively by its biggest success stories. There's a difference between identifying pitchers with exceptional physical tools and consistently helping those pitchers translate their abilities into major-league potential.

Mueth is hardly the first young pitcher to struggle with command, and five Arizona Fall League appearances certainly aren't enough to declare his career a lost cause. Still, his difficulties extend well beyond October. Pittsburgh has now spent multiple seasons trying to turn an intriguing collection of raw tools into something more reliable, with little measurable progress in the area that matters most.

The Pirates don't need every draft pick to become another Skenes. But when a former premium selection continues struggling to throw strikes against Low-A competition three years into his professional career, it's fair to question whether the current developmental approach is producing the necessary results.

Mueth's future isn't necessarily determined by what happens in Arizona this fall. But perhaps the more troubling question is how much longer the Pirates can afford to wait for his potential to become something tangible.

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