3 bold mock trade proposals that would fix the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield

Pirates add JJ Bleday amidst rebound season in Oakland

Of all potentially available options, the Pirates would be best suited to go after JJ Bleday of the Oakland Athletics. Bleday is having a nice breakout season and is hitting .239/.319/.433 with a .327 wOBA and 117 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. Bleday once struggled to keep his strikeouts under control, but now he’s putting up a K% below 20% at 18.8%. He’s still walking at a quality 10.2% rate as well. Bleday’s power has also been on display. He has 22 doubles, 11 homers, and a .192 isolated slugging percentage.

While many projected Bleday as a corner outfielder, he’s been able to hold his own in center this year for Oakland. He only has -2 defensive runs saved and -1 outs above average in 700.2 innings. That’s a massive step up from last year when he had -8 DRS and -2 OAA in less than half of the innings played at the same position (236 frames, to be exact). If he has to move to an outfield corner in the future, he has the arm to do so. He’s in the 80th percentile of throw velocity.

On top of all that, Bleday is young at 26 years old and under control for four more seasons after 2024. His first year of arbitration won’t be until 2026. He has one more whole season of pre-arb left. With his production, age, and control remaining, this would be a prime target for the Pirates to go after.

The headliner of this package is Thomas Harrington, as we attempt to suss out what, exactly, the A's would want in exchange here. While the top prospect missed the first month of the year, he picked up right where he left off and then some. He’s tossed 45.2 innings (mostly at Double-A, plus one rehab stint at Bradenton) and owns a 2.96 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. Harrington has struck out nearly a quarter of opponents with a 24.7% K% and a respectable 0.79 HR/9, but he has a nanoscopic 2.7% walk rate on the year. He has the lowest walk rate among Double-A pitchers with at least eight outings this year.

Harrington obviously has good command. You don’t post a sub-3% walk rate on the basis of good control alone. He’s not a hard thrower, only sitting 92-94 MPH, but it plays up because of its ability ride through the zone. His sweeping slider has been a major improvement to his arsenal since leaving college. He also has an above-average changeup while mixing in a curveball and cutter.

The position player prospect in this deal is Lonnie White Jr. White Jr. is a pretty high-risk prospect, and that’s been displayed in his game this year. He is only hitting .190/.294/.410 with a .323 wOBA and 97 wRC+ on the year. While he has walked at a 9.1% pace with 11 homers in 231 plate appearances and a .220 isolated slugging percentage, he’s also struck out over 30% of the time (31.6%, to be exact). To White Jr.’s credit, he has been hitting much better as of recently, with a .823 OPS, .372 wOBA, and 127 wRC+ since the start of June. He’s also cut his K% down below 30% at 27.7%.

White has 20/20 potential, with his ceiling being a 30/30 threat. He’s a double-plus runner and uses that speed to track down fly balls deep in the gaps in center field. The former 2021 draft pick is also someone who could compete for the Gold Glove in the future. Even if he has to play some corner outfield, his arm can work in both left and right field. White Jr. is a pretty high-risk but high-reward prospect, and teams will be intrigued by his potential.

The fact that Bleday is still a whole year away from arbitration is valuable. Add on that he can hit and play a solid center field, and it doesn't seem likely a deal will come at a cheap price, even if his price tag is lower than initially expected. Harrington and White Jr. are both very good prospects, the former being a borderline top 100 guy and someone who could break onto most top 100 lists with his current trend line, and the latter maintaining a sky-high ceiling. That's the price to pay, however, for a good center fielder with four more years of control remaining.

Pirates convince Astros to sell from top-notch depth yet again

Jake Meyers isn’t the only short-term veteran on the Houston Astros’ roster. Someone who might have a greater chance of getting moved at the deadline is outfielder/infielder Mauricio Dubon. The utility man could solve the Pirates’ issues in the outfield, but also help provide depth on the infield.

Dubon has been about a league-average hitter the last two seasons. In 2024, he is slashing .284/.308/.398. Dubon rarely walks with a 3.1% BB%, but he avoids striking out like the plague with an 8.8% K%. Unfortunately, the tradeoff is he hits for very little power, with an isolated slugging percentage of just .111. Last year was the first year he’s ever reached double-digit home runs, and even then, he only hit 10. Overall, though, a 99 wRC+ is fine, especially given his defense.

Dubon is a sound defensive outfielder with +1 DRS and OAA. He has logged innings at all three outfield positions, but to call him an outfielder would be very disingenuous. Dubon has started at least one game at first, second, and third base, as well as shortstop. He’s displayed average to above-average defense at all four infield positions and rightfully won a Gold Glove last year for utility players.

If the Astros trade Dubon, a very good comparative trade package would be what the Pirates got for Adam Frazier at the 2021 trade deadline. Both are very similar players, being contact-oriented utility men. Overall, Dubon provides about average overall value, as did Frazier. Dubon has one more year of control remaining compared to when the Pirates traded Frazier, but he is also slightly older. 

Because of that, I have the Pirates trading three prospects, all of which are of similar caliber to what they got for Frazier. The first is Mitch Jebb. Jebb’s first extended look in pro ball hasn’t gone as smoothly as anticipated. He’s only batting .223/.325/.316 on the year with a .308 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Jebb is striking out at an uncharacteristic rate of 23.5%. He doesn’t project to hit for much power and has a sub-.100 isolated slugging percentage. On the plus side, his plus speed is playing well, as he’s swiped 20 bases already, and his plate discipline has looked good with a 12.5% BB%.

To Jebb’s credit, he has been hitting much better as of recently, cutting his K% down below 20% with a .797 OPS, .388 wOBA, and 137 wRC+ dating back to the start of June. This is more in line with what many were expecting with Jebb: lots of walks, a good BA, decent K%, and some steals. Jebb is a solid defensive middle infielder, but his speed gives him the chance to be a potential center field option if he has to move there.

The second player in this deal is Garret Forrester. The corner infielder/catcher was the Pirates’ third-round pick last year. Forrester has been injured since mid-May, but he was batting well up until that point with a .262/.421/.381 line, .396 wOBA, and 141 wRC+. Forrester drew walks at an elite 17.8% rate, but didn’t hit for much power in the 107 plate appearance sample size with a .119 isolated slugging percentage, striking out 26.2% of the time.

Although Forrester mostly played first base with the occasional game at the hot corner, he’s been used behind the plate by the Pirates this year. He has a strong enough arm to play both as a catcher and third baseman. There have been some growing pains behind the plate, but it is the first time he’s played the position regularly since at least high school. 

The last part of the package is Ryan Harbin. Harbin is a 22-year-old relief pitching prospect. He sits mid-90s with his sinker and gets his fair share of strikeouts. Plus, he keeps the ball on the ground quite frequently. However, Harbin also has command issues. This year, he has a 14.7% walk rate and, since getting to High-A ball last year, Harbin has a 14.2% BB%. 

Again, if he Astros trade Dubon, the package will probably look something like what the Pirates got for Frazier. This mock trade is a close equivalent of that 2021 package. Dubon would make a major impact on the Pirates’ roster. He could help the outfield, but he’ll also provide depth at pretty much every position other than catcher.