3 Pirates prospects who made great first impressions in 2024

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A handful of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ top prospects did not get a good sample size of playing time during the 2023 season. They were either recent draft picks, international signings, or acquired via trade late into the season. Luckily, this year, the Pirates were able to get a good idea of what some of those prospects could bring to the table in the future.

A few Pirates prospects who either made their pro debut in 2024, or had fewer than 100 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched last year in Pittsburgh's system, deserve a deeper dive. Prospects the Pirates acquired via trade who had minimum professional experience prior to joining the Bucs will also be considered.

Zander Mueth

Zander Mueth was the Pirates’ second-round competitive balance pick in 2023. The right-hander was the Pirates’ top high school draft pick of their draft class, hailing from Belleville HS East. Mueth signed a huge overslot deal worth nearly $1.8 million (slot value was $1,128,200), and his first look against pro batters was quite promising.

Mueth opened the year with a 1.58 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP in 51.1 innings at the Florida Complex League. He limited home runs very well, allowing just two long balls while inducing a ground ball nearly 50% of the time (49.6%). But walks gave him some trouble and he dished out a free pass to 11.6% of his opponents.

Regardless, he was eventually promoted to Bradenton, and while he kept up a respectable 3.97 ERA in 22.2 innings, he handed out walks (24) more often than he struck batters out (23). His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainable .151, but there were definitely some numbers under the hood that were strong.

Mueth’s sinker averaged 93.6 MPH with nearly 15 inches of horizontal break. His slider induced a whiff rate of 42.3% while sitting mid-80s with 36.4 inches of drop. His changeup has similar velocity and vertical break, but features over 10 more inches of horizontal movement. On top of that, Mueth has a ton of deception. He throws from a very low arm slot, and thanks to how he releases his offerings, they look much faster out of the hand.

Hunter Barco

The Pirates took Hunter Barco in the second round of the 2022 draft. The lefty out of the University of Florida had a strong final season in college that was hindered by Tommy John surgery. The Pirates signed Barco to a $1,525,000 million signing bonus, which came in under slot value.

Barco would eventually return to action in the second half of 2023, pitching in a reduced role, and going at least four innings in just one of his nine appearances. For what it was worth, it was a promising small sample size of 18.1 innings where he had a 3.44 ERA, 1.79 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP, didn't allow a home run, and struck out over a third of his opponents (35.9%) with a strong 7.7% walk rate.

After revving up in 2023, Barco returned to a more steady role this season and produced some strong results. He had a 3.27 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP through 66 innings of work. The southpaw walked 8.3% of opponents with an 0.68 HR/9, but struck out just over 30% of batters with a 31.8% K%. Barco allowed fly balls at a rate under 30% (29.8%) while inducing grounders at a 46.4% rate. Barco was shut down in August and September, but the numbers he did post were very promising.

Barco flashed better velocity in 2024, sitting 92-94 MPH with his sinker. His four-seamer had similar velocity with more horizontal movement. His low-80s slider looked like an above average pitch, and his splitter looked like a fourth offering with average-to-above-average potential. With good command and a deceptive motion on the mound, Barco’s first extended look went very well.

Carlson Reed

Another 2023 draft pick who emerged this season was Carlson Reed, who the Bucs took in the fourth round out of West Virginia University. Reed worked solely as a reliever during his final season at WVU, but the Pirates were determined to try him out as a starting pitcher once again this season. Needless to say, the results speak for themselves.

Reed pitched 108.2 innings between Bradenton and Greensboro, working to a 1.99 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. Reed struck out 29.7% of opponents while allowing home runs at just an 0.41-per-9 pace. Reed handed out a walk to 11.7% of opponents, but he cut his BB% below 8% after he got promoted to High-A ball. Very few minor league pitchers had as good of a season as Reed had. His ERA was the third best of all hurlers, while he ranked top 25 in WHIP, strikeout rate, home run rate, and in the top 50 in FIP (min. 100 innings pitched).

Reed’s numbers under the hood were also very promising. Reed was next to unhittable at Bradenton, inducing a whiff rate of 32.2%. Opponents could only respond with a meager 85.4 MPH average exit velocity and 3.3% barrel rate against him when they did make contact. His .260 opponent xwOBA was the second-best on the Marauders (min. 500 pitches).

Reed showed off a wide variety of pitches, including a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. Reed typically sits 93-95 MPH with his four-seamer. His most used pitch was his sinker, which sat 92.5 MPH with 22.4 inches of drop and 13.2 inches of break. All four offerings induced quality results, but his slider and changeup had exemplary whiff rates of over 50%.

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Zander Mueth

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