4 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who are having unlucky (but promising) seasons

Luck can be a big factor in baseball. A line drive with 100 miles per hour worth of exit velocity doesn't always fall for a hit, just like a blooper 70 MPH off the bat doesn't always find a glove. Perfectly executed pitches are taken deep every day, and pitches down the middle are swung and missed at routinely. In some cases, luck can greatly affect a player's bottom line. But in the minor leagues, the bottom line results aren't always the best indicator of talent when evaluating prospects.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have some decent talent throughout their minor league system, and many of these talented players haven't had good luck on their side this season. In some cases, it's been starkly the opposite. Some have great peripherals with decent stuff, but haven't had the results to show for it yet.  Some are having strong seasons, even if their ERA doesn't say so.

4 Pirates prospects experiencing unlucky 2024 seasons

Michael Kennedy

When you think of the Pirates' best pitching prospects, many think of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft, but Michael Kennedy seems to get overlooked. Kennedy has had a solid year for the Bradenton Marauders in his first extended look of playing time. His promotion to Greensboro was well deserved.

Prior to getting bumped to Greensboro, Kennedy had a 4.07 ERA, but a 3.72 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. While Kennedy's ERA was above 4.00, there were many promising aspects to his game that could help him improve at High-A. Kennedy had a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. His BB% is the seventh-best among pitchers at A-Ball with at least 12 games started. The young southpaw's 5.00 K:BB ratio is also top 10 at the level (seventh).

Kennedy's 0.99 HR/9 is respectable, but could be better. His HR/FB ratio was 12.1%, which is a tad high. He managed an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity and 5.1% barrel rate. Kennedy also got his fair share of swings and misses with a 32.3% whiff rate. All three were above-average marks at the A-ball level.

Kennedy also produced large differences between some of his expected stats and bottom line numbers. Baseball Savant pinned his opponent xSLG% at .317 when they actually managed a .396 mark. His opponent wOBA was .300, but their xwOBA was just .259. The only pitcher with a larger discrepancy between their xwOBA and xSLG% and their actual wOBA and SLG% for the Marauders is another fellow Kennedy, Tyler Kennedy (no relation).

Kennedy only throws around 90 MPH currently, but batters have just a .287 xwOBA off his four-seamer. His slider has induced a swing and miss over a 40% of the time, with a 41.9% whiff rate. Kennedy's third offering is a low-80s changeup, which gets swings and misses over a third of the time (36.4%). He has yet to allow a barreled-up batted ball with that pitch.

Kennedy is one of the more exciting pitchers in the Pirates' system to watch, even if he doesn't have overpowering stuff. He makes it work and has shown plus control thus far. Kennedy is only 19, so for him to be at High-A is impressive on its own. He should definitely move up prospect rankings at the end of this year.