5 pitchers who could be in the Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation by end of year

The Pittsburgh Pirates' starting rotation has easily been the team's strongest suit this year. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller have been a formidable trio, and arguably the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball. Bailey Falter has been better than anyone expected him to be. While injuries have made the fifth spot of the rotation a bit more shaky, with the Pirates rotating starters in and out and utilizing bullpen games, there's no doubt the Pirates' rotation is one of the better ones in baseball.

With Martín Pérez struggling badly in his most recent outing (and the fact he is a rental), it's not out of the realm of possibility the Pirates push him to the bullpen, especially with some of the talent on the 40-man roster. They have a lot of arms in place who have a very real chance of ending up as starters for the Pirates by the end of this season, let alone by the All-Star break.

5 Pirates who could end up in the starting rotation later this year

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft could join the Pirates' rotation right now if they wanted. He's on the 40-man roster, is already 24, was recently promoted to Triple-A, and has continued his outstanding season after being elevated. There's an outside chance Ashcraft makes his debut before the All-Star break. He could be a huge addition to the Pirates' rotation down the line.

So far this year, Ashcraft has thrown 69 innings between Altoona and Indy, working to a 3.00 ERA, 3.06 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. He has a quality 25.8% strikeout rate and 0.78 HR/9 but has been one of the best pitchers at limiting walks. He has a 4.3% walk rate, which is the 14th lowest among any minor-league arm who has started at least ten games.

Ashcraft regularly sits 94-96 MPH with his fastball and can carry above-average velo late into games. Both his slider and curveball are above average pitches. He'll also mix in a changeup from time to time. Over the last two years, his command has gotten better and better, with walks almost never being a problem. He's had just one outing since the start of 2023 where he's allowed at least three walks, and has never allowed four in a game.

The question that remains is whether the Pirates will use Ashcraft as a starter or reliever when they call him up. There's no doubt in my mind that they view him as a long-term starting pitcher, but he's already reached a career high in innings pitched as a pro pitcher. May of this year represented the first time he pitched at least six innings in a game since 2019. Regardless, there's still a chance he will see some starts in the major leagues in the second half of the season.

Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz has looked great so far this season. The former top prospect has mostly worked out of a long relief role, but over the last month, the Pirates have been building up his workload. They've been doing so mainly out of necessity, but it's opened the door for a potential return to the starting rotation. This time, he merits an extended look.

Ortiz has tossed 53 innings so far in 22 games, including one start, which was his most recent outing. Ortiz has a 3.23 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP during that time. He's been good at limiting walks (with an 8.1% BB%) and home runs (clocking in with a 0.51 HR/9). But Ortiz has not struck out many batters. He has a sub-20% K% at 19.3%. However, even though he's been asked to pitch more and more innings at a time in June, his numbers have only gotten better.

Ortiz has a 3.22 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP in June. He's been next to allergic to walks with a 2.2% walk rate. So far, that's the fourth-lowest BB% among any pitcher with at least 20 frames tossed this month. Ortiz is also nearing the league average with a 21.4% K% during June. He's also been good at limiting homers with an 0.81 HR/9 and 47.8% ground ball rate. It's not like this is him getting lucky in a small sample size, either. He has a 3.28 xFIP and 3.13 SIERA.

Although Ortiz isn't throwing 98-100 MPH four-seamers and sinkers like he was in 2022, he is throwing with more movement. His sinker has gained three inches of drop, while his slider has seen a two-inch increase in horizontal break. It's not like he's a soft-tosser, either. His sinker and fastball still sit 95-96 MPH and are in the 75th percentile of velocity. With better command, it makes sense why he's been so effective this year.

Ortiz has finally looked like that promising pitcher we saw in 2022. He's been dominant in June, and with how they've been building up his workload, it could easily be sooner rather than later that we see him start getting the ball more regularly to start games. 

Bubba Chandler

Bubba Chandler is easily the boldest call here. However, he's arguably the most talented pitcher in the Pirates' system. He was ranked ahead of Jared Jones heading into this season, and with the way he's been tossing the ball lately, he could easily get bumped to Triple-A within the next few weeks.

Chandler has followed up his promising 2023 campaign with another extremely encouraging start to the year. He's tossed 54 innings thus far with a 4.17 ERA, but has maintained a more impressive 3.49 FIP and 1.15 WHIP. Batters have trouble making contact off of Chandler. He's striking them out 30.4% of the time while holding them to a .200 batting average. He hasn't allowed many home runs either, with an 0.83 HR/9. Preventing walks has been his weakest skill, but he still carries a respectable 9.8% BB%.

But since the start of June, Chandler has been scorching hot. He has pitched 25.1 innings, pitching to a 2.49 ERA, 1.69 FIP, and 0.87 WHIP. Chandler has struck out over a third of opponents with a 34.7% strikeout rate, but here's the real kicker: he has walked a microscopic 3% of batters faced. The most walks he's dished out during any of his outings in June is one. Chandler has allowed just a single homer while holding opponents to a batting average just below the Mendoza line at .196.

Chandler is still just 21, but he's regularly hitting the upper 90s, even topping out at triple-digits with his fastball. His slider is an easy plus pitch and his changeup has improved since he was taken in the third round of the 2021 draft. He'll also mix in a curveball from time to time, and while it's a usable offering, it's easily his worst pitch. The command has come a long way as well, and he's been using the athleticism he had at shortstop on the mound to repeat his delivery.

It's a little bold to say that Chandler will be in the starting rotation by the end of the year, but I think there's a chance. He just keeps getting better and better, and before long, the Pirates won't have any choice but to give him some starts at the big-league level with his current trajectory. 

Quinn Priester

When the Pirates ran into some injuries earlier this year, Quinn Priester was their go-to guy. Heading into the 2024 season, he was seen as the sixth starter on the 40-man roster. He's missed the last few weeks due to injury, but is back in action and could soon be an option for the Bucs' big-league rotation.

Priester's numbers on the season aren't great. He has a 4.81 ERA, 5.72 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP through 31.2 innings pitched. His K% is well below 20% at 13.8%, and he's allowing nearly two home runs every nine innings with a 1.99 HR/9. That's about as "nearly two" as you can get. On the plus side, he's done great at limiting walks with a 6% BB% and is still inducing a ton of ground balls with a 60% GB%.

But Priester's underlying numbers are more promising. He has a 4.19 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA. While neither ERA estimator is overly ambitious in his performance, both paint him as what you'd expect from a back-of-the-rotation arm. His four-seamer and sinker have shown much more movement than they did last year, and while his slider has lost some movement, he's throwing it slightly harder.

Priester also has fared well at Triple-A. He has tossed 28.2 innings for Indianapolis, resulting in a 3.45 ERA, 2.72 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. The former first-round pick is striking out just over a quarter of the batters he's faced with a 25.6% K%, a strong 6% walk rate, and 0.31 HR/9.

Priester certainly hasn't pitched poorly this year. He's provided back-of-the-rotation-caliber production for the Pirates when he has pitched. Priester will definitely be an option for the Pirates' rotation in the second half of the season. He might not be the first option, but definitely someone the Pirates could rely on if need be.