Ben Cherington's extension for Mitch Keller gives hope for shrewd Pirates offseason

When the Pittsburgh Pirates signed right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller to a five-year, $77 million contract extension before the start of the 2024 season, it was clear that they were betting heavily on upside. The former second-round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft had pitched to an unremarkable 4.08 ERA in 353 and 1/3 innings over the previous five seasons, and he had yet to put together one complete, strong season at the MLB level.

Keller got off to a horrifically bad start in 2022, including a combined ERA of 9.19 over hist first two starts, before settling down in mid-May. The following season proved to be the inverse, as he dominated for the first two-thirds of 2023 before falling apart with numerous meltdowns down the stretch of the season as his workload reached a new career high (194 1/3 innings).

Still, Keller's rocky stretches in 2022-23 – not to mention the impending arrivals of promising rookies Paul Skenes and Jared Jones – were not enough to deter the Pirates from locking him up for five more years. Prior to Jones landing on the injured list in July, the trio formed a three-headed monster on Pittsburgh's starting staff. Even without Jones, Keller and Skenes have proven to be a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation.

In signing Keller to an extension this past offseason, Pirates general manager Ben Cherington offered a small glimmer of hope – not only that Keller would be worth the gamble, but also that Pittsburgh's front office would not be complacent and rest solely on the promise of unproven rookies and top prospects when it came to anchoring the pitching staff moving forward.

Ben Cherington's extension for Mitch Keller gives hope for shrewd Pirates offseason

The early signs point to Keller being a rare success story for a Pirates organization whose history of developing starting pitching has been suspect at best. Pittsburgh fans still twitch at the mention of Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Joe Musgrove or any of the countless pitchers who struggled to find success in the Pirates' system before being traded and breaking out with their new clubs. Even Keller didn't come by his success quickly or easily.

Maybe – just maybe – Cherington's decision to extend Keller was a sign of things to come this offseason. For an organization that has for so long prided itself on its prospect pipeline without investing resources into its major league roster, it's time for a wake-up call. In MLB Pipeline's latest farm system rankings, Pittsburgh's group ranks in the bottom third. It's time for Cherington to continue what he started last winter with Keller's extension and start investing in more major league talent.

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