Dennis Santana's September could define his role in Pirates' 2025 bullpen

Expectations were low for right-handed reliever Dennis Santana when the Pittsburgh Pirates picked him up off waivers. Not only was Santana coming off a horrific stint with the New York Yankees, where he had an ERA over 6.00, but he had never strung together a quality season in his career. Santana had an unimpressive 5.34 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP prior to arriving in Pittsburgh.

On top of that, Santana did not make a great first impression. Quite the opposite, actually. In just his second game with the Pirates, Santana allowed six earned runs. He did not strike out a single batter, walked two, and allowed four hits, including a home run. But first impressions aren’t everything, and Santana has been next to lights out since, single-handedly giving this bullpen a second life during David Bednar and Colin Holderman's backslides.

Santana has pitched 31.1 innings since, working to a 1.44 ERA, 1.88 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP, looking next to untouchable. He has struck out 34.2% of his opponents with a whiff rate of 36.8%. When batters do make contact against Santana, it rarely goes anywhere. Opponents have managed an 82.7 MPH exit velocity and a 3% barrel rate. Santana’s control has been a huge strong suit, with a walk rate of just 4.4%.

With how good Santana has been, one has to wonder what his potential role will be in 2025. His role for the Bucs could possibly be decided by how they utilize him throughout the final month of the 2024 season. By the looks of it, over the last few weeks, Santana is in line for a higher leverage role.

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Santana has now pitched in the eighth inning or later in eight of his last 10 appearances. He has pitched 13.1 near-perfect innings across those 10 outings. The only base runners he has allowed have come via a hit, a walk, and one hit-by-pitch. He has not allowed a walk since August 11, and has allowed just two free passes since the start of August. Santana has struck out 14 batters over this stretch of work as well.

Not only is he working in late innings, but he is also seeing more high-leverage opportunities. 1.0 represents baseline leverage on the average leverage index scale. Over his last six outings, five saw him come into a game where his average leverage index was above 1.00. Overall, his ALI in these six outings is 1.23. Along with the save he recorded in his most recent outing at the time of writing this, he has also logged four holds, and only four of his 14 appearances since the start of August have seen him come in with a lead or deficit greater than two runs.

Santana has done everything he possibly can to earn more looks in higher-leverage innings, and by the looks of it, the Pirates are ready to at least see what he can do, even in save situations. Santana could potentially factor into the closing situation next season. David Bednar shouldn’t just be handed the role on a silver platter. It should be a competition, at the very least, and Santana should be involved, especially if he can continue to handle himself well down the home stretch of the season.