Forming the best possible second half lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup has been disappointing this year. As a unit, they're batting a meager .230/.298/.369 with a .294 wOBA and 87 wRC+. They rank in the bottom ten in baseball in all three triple-slash numbers, wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored at 382, at the time this writing. While they've been slightly better recently, managing to get their wOBA above .300 (.305) and wRC+ above 90 (95) since June 15th, it's still been an inconsistent group.

But the Pirates' lineup also has some potential and could run into some better luck in the future. They have the fourth most out-of-zone called strikes. They also have the second-largest difference between their wOBA (.294) and xwOBA (.312), have an above average 89.1 MPH exit velocity and sport an 8.6% barrel rate. So, as we head into the second half of the year, what is the best possible lineup the Pirates can put out there?

This is only looking at players currently on the Pirates' 40-man roster. The Pirates can and should (and probably will) make a move for a longer-term bat, but as of right now, we are just going to look at what the Pirates' best lineup will be for the second half of the year based on their current options.

Catcher: Joey Bart

Joey Bart has single-handedly saved the Pirates' catching situation this year. When Jason Delay went down with an injury early in the year, the Pirates acquired the former second overall pick from the San Francisco Giants. Not only has he provided the Bucs with a solid glove behind the dish, but he has some pop with the bat as well, something this lineup has very much needed this year.

Bart is batting .232/.319/.451 through 94 plate appearances. He has hit five home runs and has a .219 isolated slugging percentage with the Pirates. Bart has an above-average 89.4 MPH exit velocity and a 9.3% barrel rate. Bart has been prone to striking out throughout his career, and this year is no different. He has a 28.6% K%, but he's combatted that by walking 11% of the time. 

Bart's defense has been about average. He only has -1 defensive run saved and -0.4 framing runs, but he has a quick reaction time with an above-average 1.93-second pop time. His throws also average 85.1 MPH, which makes him the 15th hardest-throwing catcher in baseball this year. The one downside is that Bart has allowed two passed balls on the year.

Bart has taken over regular catching duties, and why wouldn't he? He's been a great pickup for the Pirates and has helped a position that has needed it. Even if he just becomes a three-true-outcomes sort of hitter, that's perfectly fine if he delivers solid glove work behind the plate.

First Base: Rowdy Tellez/Connor Joe

What else is there to say about the Rowdy resurgence? Heading into June, Tellez looked lost at the plate, and that might be an understatement. He was batting .177/.239/.223 with a .213 wOBA and 33 wRC+ through the first two months of the season. While he had an above-average 22.5% K%, he had a subpar 7% walk rate and a sub-.050 isolated slugging percentage at .046.

But since then, Tellez is batting .351/.396/.638 through 98 plate appearances. He has hit seven home runs with six doubles, leading to an isolated slugging percentage just south of .300 at .287. Although he still has an unimpressive 6.9% walk rate, he's cut his K% down below 20% at just 17.8%. Overall, he has a 188 wRC+.

Tellez has been a top-10 hitter in baseball since the start of his resurgence. He ranks eighth in OPS and wRC+ and fifth in wOBA among the hitters with at least 90 plate appearances since the start of June. Most of his damage has come against right-handed pitching. In Tellez's defense, he just recently hit a homer off a lefty, but they'll likely leave most of the playing time at 1B against lefty starters to Connor Joe.

While Tellez has taken off since the start of June, Joe has done the opposite and has cooled off significantly, but he still has a respectable .241/.321/.391 triple-slash, .314 wOBA, and 101 wRC+ through 293 plate appearances. It seems, when Joe was asked to take on a much larger role, it affected his overall play. With Tellez's return to form, he'll likely see more time as a part-timer in the second half of this season.

Joe is still hitting well against left-handed pitching. When facing southpaws, he is batting .273/.354/.455 with a .349 wOBA and 125 wRC+. He has both a strong 15.9% K% and a 9.7% walk rate. He has also hit for some pop, with a trio of dingers and a .182 ISO in 113 plate appearances vs LHP.

Between Joe and Tellez, first base looks to be in good hands as the Pirates head into the second half of the year. At one point, first base looked like a massive hole in the lineup. But now that Tellez has hit his stride, and Joe can provide some relief against LHP, the Pirates have a good thing going at first base now, which is nice to see given how much they have struggled to find good production at the position over the years.

Second Base: Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales was Ben Cherington's very first draft pick. Selected seventh overall in the 2020 draft, Gonzales debuted last year, but struggled in his first cup of coffee. Since returning to the big leagues this year, he's looked like a different batter, and could potentially be this team's long-term second baseman.

Gonzales is hitting .273/.312/.414 on the year. While he's walking at a sub-5% rate, he's cut his K% down significantly from last year. In 2023, he struck out 28.1% of the time. Now, he's only striking out in 23.1% of his plate appearances. Gonzales has hit five homers with a .141 isolated slugging percentage. He's made quality contact at a high rate as well, with a 10.5% barrel rate. Overall, Nicky G has a .312 wOBA and 100 wRC+.

Gonzales' defense up the middle has been spectacular. He has +5 outs above average, which is the sixth-most of any second baseman and ranks in the 91st percentile. Gonzales has also played a few games at shortstop and third base, but with 22nd-percentile arm strength, he plays best at second base. Plus, with how good he has been at the keystone, why would you want to play him anywhere else?

Gonzales has earned the right to get an extended look in the big leagues this year. He's fallen into a slump recently, but overall, he's been a solid batter, a great fielder, and a fast base runner. He's potentially someone the Pirates can rely on for years to come.

Third Base: Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes looked like he finally figured something out during the summer of last year. From June through the end of the season, Hayes batted .307/.334/.528 with a .363 wOBA and 127 wRC+. He was hitting for power, going yard 13 times in only 305 plate appearances with a .221 isolated slugging percentage. While he wasn't walking a ton, with a 4.3% BB%, he also wasn't striking out often, with a 21.6% K%.

But so far, 2024 has been rough for the third baseman. Hayes is only hitting .225/.287/.296 with a .262 wOBA, and 66 wRC+. While he's kept his K% below 20% at 19.4%, he has only drawn a walk 6.8% of the time. The power which he displayed during summer 2023 has seen a dropoff with an .067 isolated slugging percentage. He's lifting the ball less, pulling the ball less, and not making as much good contact.

At the very least, Hayes has been his normal self defensively at the hot corner. He has +3 defensive runs saved and +4 outs above average in only 582 innings. The only National League third baseman with more OAA is Joey Ortiz. Hayes has made some great plays as usual and could look to secure his second Gold Glove.

Hopefully, Hayes will turn it around soon. We know what Hayes is capable of, and if he bats anything like he did last year, he'll provide a big spark to this lineup. He needs to make some tweaks to his swing and timing to pull the ball and lift the ball more frequently, but if he does that, look out, because a hot Ke'Bryan Hayes could bring a ton of offense.

Shortstop: Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz has had an up-and-down 2024 but still owns a solid .247/.303/.444 triple-slash on the year. Of course, he's hit for good power with a .197 isolated slugging percentage and 14 homers in 330 plate appearances. His strikeout rate (32.4%) and his walk rate (7.3%) aren't overly impressive, but Cruz's 106 wRC+ is still above average. Plus, he has a lot more to show than what the surface numbers say.

He has the third-best barrel rate in baseball, only surpassed by Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Cruz has the fifth-biggest difference between wOBA and xwOBA among shortstops with a .352 xwOBA. His .272 xBA and .510 xSLG% both indicate there's the potential for a massive second-half breakout for the towering shortstop. Plus, he may have been starting to figure something out before he got dinged up.

Prior to Cruz's injury, he was on a hot streak, batting .269/.356/.577 with five homers in his last 59 plate appearances. Cruz had walked in just over 10% of those PAs with a 10.2% BB%, but also cut his K% down to 30.5%. Cruz's isolated slugging percentage during this hot streak sat above .300 at .305.

Defensively, he hasn't been as bad as some might make him out to be. He has zero outs above average and -5 DRS. Cruz covers plenty of ground at shortstop with his 88th percentile sprint speed, and can make any throw, as he's in the 99th percentile of arm strength. He's been key to the infield defense, as he takes almost all relay throws from the outfield to gun down guys trying to take an extra base.

A second-half breakout for Cruz could be huge for this offense. We know what he is capable of when he gets hot. As long as he can remain average defensively up the middle, he'll be an extremely valuable part of the Pirates' lineup as we head down the stretch.

Left Field: Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds got off to a slow start to the year, but has turned things around in a big way and is on pace for one the best years of his career thus far. The switch-hitting outfielder has made his second All-Star Game, and deservingly so after how well he has hit this year. He has been one of the best National League outfielders and one of the few bright spots in the Pirates' grass.

Through his first 411 plate appearances, Reynolds is slashing .280/.343/.487 with a .357 wOBA, and 130 wRC+. Reynolds already has 17 home runs on the year. He is more than on pace to surpass his previous career high of 27 dingers. Although his 8% walk rate is a career low, Reynolds has not struck out very often, with an above-average 21.4% K%. 

Defensive metrics have been very mixed on Reynolds' work in left field. Defensive runs saved has him around average at -1. UZR/150 loves his work at +14.8. Outs above average holds the opposite opinion at -6. One thing that can be agreed upon, though, is that Reynolds has made some great throws. He is in the 82nd percentile of arm strength, as his throws average 89 MPH.

Reynolds has looked great this year with the bat. He's hitting very well and is arguably the best part of the Pirates' starting nine. Hopefully, he continues to hit into the second half of the season. He's a massive reason why the Pirates have been able to stay afloat. 

Right Field: Joshua Palacios

Finding a good player in the Rule 5 draft isn't easy. Finding a good player in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft is extremely difficult. Still, the Pirates may have hit on one with Joshua Palacios. Not only has Palacios shown some talent in the big leagues, but he also brings fire in him that can get the rest of the lineup going.

Since getting recalled to the bigs, Palacios has collected five hits (including two dingers), has drawn five walks, and has yet to go down on strike three in 23 plate appearances. Now, it's impossible to tell whether or not Palacios will maintain a 1.046 OPS, but Palacios certainly posted some very promising underlying numbers last season.

The outfielder hit the ball hard and had a 91.3 MPH exit velocity. Along with that, he made quality contact at a consistent rate with a 9.8% barrel rate. Palacios had a .318 xwOBA, which was much higher than his .297 wOBA. DRC+ (deserved runs created plus), which is Baseball Prospectus' version of wRC+ or OPS+, has a predictive element to it, putting him as an above-average hitter at 105, which placed him above some notable hitters like Ryan O'Hearn, Nolan Gorman, and J.D. Martinez.

Palacios has done everything he can to at least earn a semi-regular role in the second half of the season. If Palacios can prove to at least be a solid platoon outfielder, he'll be plenty valuable to this team. He definitely deserves a longer look, and with some promising underlying numbers, Palacios could be a surprise contributor in the second half of the Pirates' season.

Designated Hitter: Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen has had his ups and downs this year, but throughout it all, one thing that has held true is that the former MVP has gotten unlucky, whether that be via bad calls or batted ball luck. Either way, Cutch will look to run into some better results into the second half of his 16th MLB season.

Cutch hasn't been a horrible hitter. He is batting .221/.324/.381 with a .314 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. His strikeout rate is up to 26.4%, which is a career-worst, but he's still walking at a healthy 11.7% rate. Cutch has run into a dozen home runs with a .159 isolated slugging percentage, but the underlying numbers for his season are very promising and point to some better games ahead.

The veteran has a .343 xwOBA, which gives him the 23rd-largest gap between wOBA and xwOBA in baseball this year. Cutch's xSLG% is .460, giving him the 12th-biggest gap between SLG% and xSLG%. He is making quality contact at a career-best rate with a 12.4% barrel rate. Opposing pitchers aren't fooling Cutch. Umpires apparently do not like McCutchen's strike zone, as he has the third-most out-of-zone called strikes in baseball this year.

At some point, more things have to start going McCutchen's way. He's still a great hitter, and once Cutch runs into just slightly better luck, he'll find his stride again and be a key part of the Pirates' lineup during the second half of the year.