Paul Skenes' NL Rookie of the Year hype might be over for Pirates fans

Just over a month ago, the National League Rookie of the Year Award was Paul Skenes' to lose. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander was living up to every bit of the hype surrounding his name, and he was even named the NL starter in the MLB All-Star Game after making just 11 starts in his young career.

However, it took just five starts after the All-Star break for Skenes to slip from elite to – gasp! – very good. In his first 11 starts, he posted a 6-0 record and a 1.90 ERA. In five starts post-All-Star, he suffered the first losses of his career and is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA. His strikeout rate took a dip, too, as he recorded fewer than seven strikeouts in three of those starts – something he only did once in 11 starts before the All-Star break. The Pirates have a 2-3 record in Skenes' post-All-Star starts.

Skenes' relative "fall from greatness" has also happened to coincide with San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill's surge in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Merrill has had a remarkable rookie season and a tremendous impact on the surging Padres. They were once neck-and-neck with the Pirates in the crowded NL Wild Card race, but have since skyrocketed to second place in the NL West, where they are just three games back of the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers.

Jackson Merrill giving Pirates' Paul Skenes some serious competition for NL Rookie of the Year

In addition to slashing .290/.322/.483, Merrill has also demonstrated an ability to show up in crucial moments for the Padres. In many ways, he has been a microcosm of San Diego's season, seeing an uptick in his offensive numbers after the All-Star break while learning an entirely new position to fill the void left by Juan Soto. He's an everyday impact player who has played a significant role in lifting his team into a playoff spot.

Skenes is still a force of nature on the mound, but he could lose ground in Rookie of the Year voting if the Pirates fall out of the playoffs (which seems likely). There's also a chance Pittsburgh could shut him down for the season as he approaches a career high in innings, though a recent report from The Athletic indicated that this is less likely to be the case.

Either way, Merrill's emergence has made this NL Rookie of the Year race an interesting one that will likely come down to the wire in the final two months of the season. But as long as Skenes is able to finish out the year, he still has a chance.

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