The Pirates can improve their offense in the second half without a massive overhaul

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense has been dismal for most of the year. Point fingers wherever you want, but the fact of the matter is, as a unit, they are batting a meager .229/.298/.367 with a .293 wOBA and 87 wRC+, scoring just 383 runs in the process. The only noteworthy offensive statistic where the Pirates don’t rank among the bottom 10 teams is walk rate, bringing the 13th best BB% in baseball this year into the weekend.

But while the Pirates should absolutely look for some outside help, they should also know they’ve been one of the unluckiest lineups in baseball. At some point, things will go the Pirates’ way, and when it does, they could start winning a lot more of the close games they’ve lost out on in the first half of the year.

Umpires hate the Pirates batters’ strike zones. 2.4% of the pitches they have seen outside the strike zone this year have been called strikes, the third-highest rate among all MLB teams. 44 of those pitches were in two-strike counts, which is the most in baseball. That means the Pirates have been punched out looking the most on pitches outside the zone.

Umpires hate the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense as much as you do

The Pirates aren’t hitting the ball horribly, either. They have an above-average 89 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel rate on the year. The league average is 88.8 MPH and 7.9%, respectively. They have the same exit velocity as the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, and Houston Astros. Their barrel rate is the ninth best, ahead of the likes of the Philadelphia Phillies, Twins, and all other National League Central teams.

Baseball Savant’s expected numbers aren’t bad either for the Bucs. They have a .312 expected weighted on-base average, and they are tied with the Chicago White Sox for the largest team difference in wOBA and xwOBA. They also have the sixth-largest difference between their slugging percentage and xSLG% (.399), the third-largest gap between their batting average and xBA (.244), and the third-most significant gap between their OBP and xOBP (.312).

But if the Pirates play to that level, they’ll be a league-average unit. The average triple-slash and wOBA in 2024 is .244/.312/.396 and .310, respectively. Expected numbers put the Pirates as a .244/.312/.399-hitting team with a .312 wOBA. As it’s been stated time and time again, if the Pirates can have at least average hitting, they’ll win a lot of games, given how good their pitching is. 

Now, that doesn’t mean the Pirates are good to go with the guys they have now. This shouldn’t be an excuse for them not to add to the lineup via trade. They need to make external improvements. Even if they had a lineup producing as well as the Murderers' Row Yankees, they'd still need another stick in the lineup for insurance. The offense still has issues. They still have the sixth-highest whiff rate, and have the second-most strikeouts looking in baseball. Even though umpires have rung them up a ton on pitches outside the zone, they've still looked at the 11th-most pitches in what Baseball Savant considers the heart of the zone.

But, at the very least, the guys they have now have the potential to be an average unit with the bat. An average offense will get the job done when you have a rotation as good as the Pirates' group, with more arms on the way and a bullpen with the potential to be extremely good in the second half of the year. If just a few more things go the Bucs’ way, along with one or two additions to the lineup, the second half could be very fun for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates.