Pirates fans might be ignoring reality surrounding Paul Skenes' second-half workload

Before the 2024 MLB All-Star Game even started, Fox Sports color analyst and Baseball Hall of Famer John Smoltz sounded giddy with anticipation.

Soon, Pittsburgh Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes would be taking the mound, making history as the first player to go from No. 1 overall draft pick to starting in the All-Star Game the following year, and showing that he was ready to shine on baseball's biggest stage.

“He’s got electric stuff,” Smoltz said on the broadcast. “Pittsburgh is in good hands with Paul Skenes.”

Skenes went on to throw 16 pitches of no-hit ball in the first inning against Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson and New York Yankees sluggers Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. When evaluating Skenes' performance, Smoltz almost sounded starstruck. He said Skenes' ability was "off the charts," making specific mention of his glove-side command, the fading action on his trademark "splinker" pitch, his arm angle, and the mechanics of his delivery.

“He could literally throw all four-seam fastballs," Smoltz said . "I was hoping we’d see more of them."

So were we, John. So were we.

Yes, the All-Star Game is merely an exhibition, and the plan was never for Skenes to pitch more than one inning on Tuesday. But we still remember his last start before the break in which he threw seven no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts, only to be pulled from the game at 99 pitches. It's just the latest of multiple instances in which the Pirates' management of Skenes' workload has incited outrage among fans.

“Pittsburgh’s going to have to find a way to get him through the second half,” Smoltz said. “Can you imagine them in the postseason?”

Are Pirates fans ignoring the reality surrounding Paul Skenes' workload for second half?

The Pirates won their final four games before the break and will enter the second half with a .500 record (48-48), 1½ games out of the National League's third and final wild card spot. Their starting rotation is anchored by a 22-year-old flamethrower who just handled four of baseball’s best players on the game's biggest stage (he pitched very well to Soto, who worked a walk).

In 11 career starts over the past two months since making his MLB debut, Skenes has a 1.90 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 12.1 K/9. He throws absolute gas, with his aforementioned fastball regularly hitting triple digits. He is dialed in for every single pitch – until he inevitably gets yanked from the mound, that is.

The frustrating reality is that as long as he continues to put mileage on his arm, Skenes will probably never pitch a complete game. In fact, as the season goes on, he may see an even lighter workload than he's had up to this point. The Pirates want to prioritize his health and prolong his season – an admirable, if not overprotective, strategy.

The reality is that the Pirates need to preserve Skenes because he's going to be a perennial All-Star. He threw 122 2/3 innings in college last year, then added 6 2/3 in the Pirates' system after being drafted. In 2024, he began the year at Triple-A and got called up after 27 1/3 innings. He's tossed 66 1/3 since becoming a Pirate, bringing his total to 93 2/3.

So we're approaching his career high number. We're not sure what that means to the Pirates, but it probably wouldn't be the smartest to blow by that number, especially if the Buccos make the playoffs.

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