Paul Skenes' historic season should win him Rookie of the Year over Jackson Merrill

When the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Paul Skenes first overall in 2023, they were hoping he’d eventually develop into an ace. But to become this good so quickly puts him well above any expectations set upon him. In his rookie season, Skenes has pitched 98 innings in 16 starts. In that time, he has a 2.30 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and 0.969 WHIP. Skenes has an 11.1 K/9 rate, along with a 2.2 BB/9. He also has not been super home run prone, sporting an 0.9 HR/9 rate.

But these numbers aren’t just good. They’re historically good. Among rookies in the integration era who started at least 15 games in their first season, Skenes has the third-best ERA. His FIP is the 12th best, and he's only one of 15 pitchers to have a sub-3.00 FIP. Skenes’ WHIP is the best ever, and he ranks as one of just three rookie starters in history with a sub-1.00 WHIP. Skenes’ ERA+ is 179, which is also the best ever. Only 17 rookie pitchers have ever averaged at least 10 Ks-per-9, and Skenes has the seventh-best mark. His K:BB ratio is also the seventh best, making him one of only seven rookies with a K:BB over 5.00.

These aren't just impressive for a rookie. They are also among the best numbers for any starting pitcher this year. There have been 121 pitchers with at least 15 games started this season. Skenes has the third-best ERA, eighth-best FIP, and fifth-best WHIP. He is one of only 11 pitchers with a K/9 above 10.0 and a BB/9 under 3.0. 

Pirates' Paul Skenes ceding ground to Jackson Merrill in Rookie of the Year race

Skenes should have an easy lead for Rookie of the Year right now, but many have San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill overtaking Skenes for that honor. To Merrill’s credit, he is having a terrific year. Through 462 plate appearances, Merrill is batting .289/.320/.484 with a .342 wOBA and 125 wRC+. He has 17 homers and a .194 isolated slugging percentage. Merrill has played center field with grace despite just moving to the position this season. He already has +6 outs above average.

Now, that’s not to take away from Merrill. He is having a great season. But if he were to win Rookie of the Year, he would have the lowest OPS by a ROY winner since 2004, when Bobby Crosby won it among a very weak American League rookie class. One could argue that Merrill isn’t even the most valuable position player rookie this year. Michael Busch of the Chicago Cubs has been just as good of a hitter while providing strong defense at first base. Tyler Fitzgerald has nearly matched Merrill in fWAR despite playing in about half the amount of games.

To put it bluntly, Merrill is having a fantastic rookie season, but Skenes is having an historically great rookie season. Very few pitchers have dominated opposing hitters as a rookie like he has this season. Unless Skenes falls off a cliff throughout the final month of the season, which looks unlikely at best, the National League Rookie of the Year award should be Skenes’ to win.