Pirates' third-round MLB draft pick could continue team's bad habits

After focusing on high school players on the first day of the 2024 MLB Draft, the Pirates went back to a familiar – and successful – mode on Day 2. In the third round, Pittsburgh selected Wake Forest lefty Josh Hartle, a once-touted prospect that fits the Pirates’ mold in more ways than one.

Hartle marks the sixth college pitcher selected by the Pirates in the first three rounds going back to the 2020 Draft. That’s six of 16 total selections, and most of the prior five are nothing to sneeze at. Paul Skenes and Carmen Mlodzinski are already entrenched as members of the big-league club, and Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco are top prospects. Nick Garcia, a third-round pick in 2020, was traded to Colorado for Connor Joe. While the Pirates will expect similar value from Hartle, one aspect of the left-hander’s game may feel familiar for all the wrong reasons.

Third-round pick Josh Hartle fits the Pirates’ mold of a seasoned college pitcher, but his reliance on the cutter feeds into Pittsburgh’s bad habits.

MLB Pipeline describes Hartle as “cutter-happy,” and given the Pirates’ emphasis on the cutter, it seems like Hartle will fit right in. The pitch took the Bucs’ Spring Training facility by storm heading into the 2024 season, and since then, Pittsburgh could be described as “cutter-happy” as well.

The cutter has accounted for 14.1 percent of the Pirates’ pitches so far this season, third-most in the Majors and tops in the National League. They shouldn’t be happy with the cutter, though, as the pitch has a -1.9 runs above average value.

The cutter has burned a number of Pirates pitchers this season. Martin Perez, Hunter Stratton, and Mitch Keller’s cutters have produced slugging percentages greater than .470. Perez’s cutter has the highest hard-hit percentage among pitchers who have used the pitch in at least 50 plate appearances.

There is a path for success for Hartle, who was the fourth Wake Forest player to be selected in the 2024 Draft. Coming out of high school, he was ranked as one of the top left-handed prospects in the 2021 Draft (he withdrew to honor his commitment to Wake Forest). He has a high ceiling, and given the pitching talent in the Pirates’ system, the club can risk falling into, and hopefully breaking, bad habits.