Pittsburgh Pirates: Re-Analyzing Top Pitching Trade Targets

Number Five
Tyler Glasnow

If you told a Pirates fan in 2017 that Mitch Keller and Tyler Glasnow were key components of the team’s rotation in 2023, they’d probably be ecstatic. While the journey to get to that point would be a little more complicated than expected, Glasnow could make his way back to Pittsburgh as the Rays will almost certainly move the right-hander.

Last year, Glasnow pitched 120 innings, working to a quality 3.58 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. The right-hander struck out just over a third of the opponents he faced with a 33.4% K-rate, with a 7.6% walk rate, and a 0.98 HR/9.

The former Pirates’ prospect posted the best ground ball rate of his career at 51.2%, although he did struggle to limit hard contact. Opponents had a 90.4 MPH exit velocity, 44.6% hard-hit rate, and 11.6% barrel rate against him. All three stats were in the 15th percentile or worse.

Glasnow isn’t higher because of his history of durability, or lack thereof. His 120 innings pitched this year is a career-high. 2023 is the first time he’s ever made more than 15 starts in any season. Plus, he’s only controlled for one more year. But Glasnow is the definition of “When he’s healthy, he’s elite.” Plus, he is one of the most likely trade candidates to get moved this off-season, according to Jon Heyman.

Glasnow may come cheap in terms of the amount of prospects that a team would need to give up as well. If a team is willing to eat the $25 million he is owed for 2024, then the Rays may not ask for the cream of the crop of prospects. But $25 million is not a light sum for someone who has pitched 100+ innings only twice and has never pitched more than 120 innings in any year, who is going into their age-30 season. Still, 120 innings from Glasnow is better than 150 innings from a lot of pitchers.

Number Four
Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber was on my list the first time around and ranked number four. Bieber’s 2023 season was not bad, far from it. However, given his resume, it was a pretty lackluster season for his standards. Still, there’s not a single team who wouldn’t take Bieber as part of their starting rotation for next season.

Bieber was limited to just 128 innings but worked to a 3.80 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP. He only had a 20.1% strikeout rate but a robust 6.4% walk rate and above average 0.98 HR/9. These aren’t bad numbers, but they pale in comparison to his 2.91 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 30.3% K-rate, and 5.5% walk rate he put up from 2019 through 2022.

Bieber also got hit hard, with a 91.6 MPH exit velocity and 47.6% hard-hit rate, both of which were below the 5th percentile of all pitchers last season. On the plus side, his 47.2% ground ball rate is about what you’d expect from him and better than the league average rate of 42.5%.

The only reason Bieber is above Glasnow is because he has a much better track record. Bieber has been able to stay healthy 200+ innings twice in his career. Heck, he has nearly as many IPs over the last four years compared to Glasnow over his entire eight-season career. Bieber also only has one year of control remaining as well.

Number Three
Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease finished second in Cy Young voting behind Justin Verlander in 2022. However, he was unable to recapture that season in 2023. Cease is still young, under control for two more years, a durable pitcher, and definitely has the potential to rebound in 2024. On top of that, Cease is a very likely trade candidate to get moved this winter.

Cease pitched 177 innings with a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. The right-hander’s 10.1% walk rate is right in line with his career average of 10.4%. But after posting a K% above 30% in 2021-2022, he saw that dip to a still strong 27.3% rate. One positive takeaway is that he posted a sub-1.00 HR/9 for the second season in a row, coming in at 0.97.

Now, many didn’t have Cease posting a sub-2.50 ERA for a second season in a row. There wasn’t a drastic difference between his 2021 and 2022 xFIP and SIERA. But this dip in production was also unexpected. Cease lost one whole MPH off his fastball; however the main culprit of his struggles may be traced back to more hard-hit baseballs and poor luck. Cease saw his opponent exit velocity jump from 86.8 MPH in ‘22 to 90 MPH in 2023, and his BABIP go from .260 to .330.

Keep in mind the White Sox were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball. They had -59 defensive runs saved, the second most in MLB. With -17 outs above average, the Sox ranked 25/30. Only one of their non-catcher position players had both a positive DRS and OAA count while playing 300+ innings in the field, that being Luis Robert.

Cease also brings a durable arm to any rotation. Since 2021, Cease’s 97 games started is the most by any pitcher in baseball. He also ranks 15th in innings pitched at 526.2 frames. Cease does not become a free agent after 2025, so he’s not just a one-year rental and will be around for two more seasons.

Number Two
Seattle Mariners Pitchers

If I made a list that didn’t simply bunch the Seattle Mariners’ pitchers together as one unit, this would be a Mariners-only list. The M’s have one of, if not the deepest, starting pitching staff in MLB and at least the American League. Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby head their rotation, and it’s not out of the possibility that they land Blake Snell. Not to mention that they’ll see Robbie Ray return by early summer.

But the Mariners have a plethora of young and controllable starting pitching, and given Jerry Dipoto’s knack for trades, it would be almost impossible for the M’s to go the entire off-season without dealing at least some of their starting pitching to fix other holes on their current roster.

My favorite is Bryce Miller. The right-hander is coming off a solid rookie season where he pitched to a 4.32 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP through 131.1 innings. While Miller’s 22.2% strikeout rate and 1.23 HR/9 were right around the MLB average, he only walked 4.8% of the batters he faced. Miller’s 4.58 K:BB ratio was the 14th best among pitchers with at least 120 frames last season. I went more in-depth with Miller in this article here.

Bryan Woo is another pitcher I’d be okay with the Pirates going after. Woo pitched 87.1 innings with a 4.21 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. The 23-year-old right-hander had a 25.1% K-rate and 8.4% walk rate but struggled with home runs with a 1.31 HR/9. But given he was above the 80th percentile of exit velocity hard-hit rate and was in the 77th percentile of barrel rate, I doubt he would post another season with a below-average HR/9.

Another pitcher to look into from the Mariners is Emerson Hancock. Hancock was the Mariners’ 2020 first-round pick and only pitched 12 big league innings in 2020. However, he had a respectable 4.38 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP at Double-A. This includes a 26% K-rate, 9.2% walk rate, and 0.83 HR/9. Hancock has yet to pitch in Triple-A, going straight from the M’s AA affiliate in Arkansas straight to Seattle.

Finally, there’s veteran lefty Marco Gonzales. Gonzales was only limited to 50 innings last year. He didn’t pitch as badly as his 5.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 1.46 WHIP suggest because he got bombed in only one of the ten starts he made before his season was cut short. However, from 2018 through 2022, Gonzales was both a durable and steady lefty, working to a 3.94 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP with a 17.7% K-rate, 5.9% walk rate, and 1.26 HR/9. Gonzales was just one of 13 pitchers in these five seasons to throw at least 750 innings and has two more years of control left. Like Miller, I have previously covered Gonzales as a potential trade target.

There are plenty of match-ups and potential trade ideas you can come up with between the Pirates and Mariners. Heck, why not consider a salary dump move involving Marco Gonzales or Robbie Ray, with the Pirates getting one of the young pitchers in return? It wouldn’t be the M’s first salary dump move of this off-season.

Number One
Freddy Peralta

Ken Rosenthal reported on November 9th that the Milwaukee Brewers are open to moving virtually any player on their roster. At the very least, that means that any and all veterans are on the block, potentially for a reasonable price. It would be foolish for the Pirates not to check in on at least some of them, but the one I would love the most is Freddy Peralta.

Peralta pitched to a quality 3.86 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP in a career-high 165.2 innings. His IP total isn’t the only career best of his 2023 season. He also had a 7.9% walk rate, the first time he’s ever put up a sub-8% BB% in a season. Peralta struck out 30.9% of the batters he faced, albeit with a sub-par 1.41 HR/9.

However, Peralta could see his home run struggles diminish next season. He had just a 0.79 HR/9 from 2020-2022, along with an inflated 16% HR/FB ratio in 2023, in comparison to his ‘20-’22 HR/FB ratio of just 8.6%. The thing is, Peralta posted a career-high GB% of 41.7%, career-low FB% of 40%, and in the 78th percentile of exit velocity at 87.6 MPH.

Peralta is both young, with multiple years of control remaining. By the end of his contract, he will only be going into his age-31 season. Peralta is owed just $5,734,960 next season with two team options worth just $8 million each, with incentives reaching upwards of only $875K. Peralta may be the most expensive player on today’s list, in terms of what the Pirates would need to give up to acquire him. However, the Pirates need quality starters, and Peralta would be it.

Honorable Mentions

Corbin Burnes

As stated with Peralta, pretty much any veteran from the Brewers is likely to get traded. That includes ace Corbin Burnes. Burnes is coming off a down season for his standards, with a 3.39 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. That’s a decent downturn from the 2.71 ERA, 2.46 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP he had the two seasons prior. Burnes also saw his K% dip to 25.5% and walk rate go up to 8.4%, both of which pale in comparison to his 32.8% K% and 5.9% BB%. Still, Burnes had a great second half, is durable, and is still the same pitcher who was a certified ace in 2021-2022. But he only has one year of control remaining, and he’d take a lot to get, especially considering he’s a division rival.

Triston McKenzie

After pitching to a phenomenal 2.96 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP in 191.1 innings in 2022, Triston McKenzie looked to secure the front end of the Guardians' rotation. Instead, he was limited to just 16 innings in 2023 due to a UCL sprain. However, McKenzie is back at full strength and looking to recapture his 2022 form. He also is controlled through the 2026 season. But because he has that much control remaining, the Guardians may not be too eager to move him just yet, unlike Bieber, who has one year remaining. There have been far fewer rumors surrounding McKenzie compared to Bieber, and at the very least, it would take a lot to pry him from the Guards right now.

Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn’s 4.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, and 1.54 WHIP may not be all that impressive, but he’s playing on a team that can’t take advantage of his strongest ability: limiting hard contact. Blackburn was in the top 82nd percentile or better of exit velocity (87.2 MPH), hard-hit rate (33.2%), and barrel rate (5.8%). But the Oakland Athletics’ defense had -79 DRS and -19 OAA. This lack of defense behind him is indicated by his .351 batting average on balls in play. If he can get even an average defense behind him, you may be looking at a 3.80-3.90 ERA pitcher.

Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah was the third-place finisher in Cy Young voting in 2022, which was his encore to his outstanding 2021 rookie season. Of course, that meant expectations were sky high for Manoah going into 2023, but he pitched to just a 5.87 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 1.74 WHIP in 87.1 innings before he was optioned to the minor leagues. But Manoah only continued to struggle in the minors and at one point, refused to go to Triple-A. Manoah has been the subject of trade rumors since then, and for the right price, I would not be upset with pursuing Manoah. But that price would have to be very, very low. While the Jays may listen to trade offers, I think it’s more likely they hold onto him for now to see if he can rebound. You’re still talking about someone who will only turn 26 in January and had an ERA+ of 157 through his first two years.

Adrian Houser

Adrian Houser is another Brewers pitcher. Last year, Houser owned a solid 4.12 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP in 111.1 innings. Houser’s 20% strikeout rate is the best he’s had since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2020. But after posting a walk rate above 10% in each of the last two years, he cut that down to just 7.1% this season. Houser is only available through 2024, so he’s just a one-year rental, but a solid one at that.