Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Players Making the Most of Winter League Action
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Newly acquired outfielder Edward Olivares and lefty reliever Jose Hernandez have seized the moment this offseason, but have they shown enough to stick in the majors?
The Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), which entered its round robin playoffs this week, is likely not the Pittsburgh Pirates’ favorite institution. In the most disheartening offseason setback, catcher Endy Rodriguez, who caught a no-hitter with Estrellas Orientales, sustained an injury to his right elbow that required surgery. Of lesser note, righty Luis Ortiz gave up 19 hits across 6 ⅔ innings (four starts) with Aguilas Cibaenas, and newly acquired infielder Sergio Alcantara has mustered a mere .153 batting average in regular-season play with Tigres del Licey.
However, two players on the team's 40-man roster are making the most of their winter league action.
Left-handed reliever Jose Hernandez
Alcantara’s Licey teammate, left-hander Jose Hernandez, seems to be making the most of his opportunities in winter ball. Hernandez, who was picked by the Pirates in the Rule 5 Draft before the 2023 season, was a pleasant surprise in the first half of the season (4.67 strikeouts per walk and a 1.024 WHIP), but he regressed after the All-Star Break (2.13 strikeouts per walk and a 1.75 WHIP).
In some ways, Hernandez’s LIDOM season has mirrored his rookie performance in the Majors. He started the winter season on a hot streak, tossing 1 ⅔ hitless innings across three outings. He struck out the four of the first five batters he faced; two of those strikeouts came with runners in scoring position.
Hernandez then fell into the tendency that got him in trouble during his rookie season. When working ahead in the count, as he did on all four of those strikeouts, Hernandez tends to use his devastating slider, but when he falls behind, he resorts to his four-seam fastball, a pitch that yielded an opponent’s batting average of .322 in 2023.
In Hernandez’s winter league outings, 10 appearances as of December 27, he has gotten ahead of the batter in nine of 26 at-bats. Those nine at-bats have resulted in seven strikeouts, a fielder’s choice, and a pop up. When Hernandez has fallen behind the batter or allowed the batter to work the count even, he has issued three walks, hit two batsmen, and allowed two earned runs.
While the Dominican League does not publish records of pitch-by-pitch analysis, Hernandez’s Major League results support this correlation between his effectiveness and working ahead in the count. When Hernandez fell behind in the count, opponents recorded an on-base percentage of .507. When the count was even, batters’ on-base percentage dropped to .308, and when Hernandez attacked the zone and got ahead, he limited hitters to a .157 on-base percentage.
Admittedly, the sample size in both the majors (50 ⅔ innings) and LIDOM (six innings) is small, but Hernandez is still a young, promising reliever, especially when he attacks the zone. His slider capacity to make batters look foolish, especially as a strikeout pitch. The Pirates’ bullpen is relatively thin when it comes to lefties, so he should have a chance to continue to prove himself in 2024.
Outfielder Edward Olivares
In the Venezuelan Winter League, Edward Olivares, whom the Pirates acquired in a trade with Kansas City on December 15, is carrying a hot bat. Granted, this league tends to be an offensive haven; three of the eight teams currently have an OPS greater than .800. By comparison, the only MLB team to exceed that mark in 2023 was the record-breaking Braves (.845).
Still, Olivares boasts a .341/.406/.495 line through 23 games (101 plate appearances). His batting average ranks 15th in a league that features Yasiel Puig and Ronald Acuna, Jr. among the top sluggers. Olivares has also shown off his speed, swiping five bases in as many attempts.
In a sense, this hot streak is an extension of the end of Olivares's 2023 season with Kansas City. Olivares spent much of the past three seasons bouncing between the Royals and Triple-A Omaha, but over the final month of the MLB season, he hit six homers (half of his season total) and racked up a 1.047 OPS. He ranked in the 83rd percentile in strikeouts, and according to Statcast’s expected home runs by park feature, he would have surpassed his home run total in every park except two: PNC Park and Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
This brings me to two major flaws in Olivares’s game: pull hitting and fielding. He loves to pull the ball up the left-field line, which is not always a recipe for success at PNC Park, which tends to favor lefties. Additionally, Olivares has been a below-average fielder in his pro career, but his arm strength ranks in the 90th percentile among Major Leaguers, according to Statcast. PNC Park’s shallow right field combined with Olivares’s cannon could dissuade opponents from running, but I don't love the idea of Olivares trying to read a ricochet off the towering wall in right. Olivares’s glove is certainly a liability, but his bat could merit a chance in an outfield platoon or at DH.
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