What are Pittsburgh Pirates' options to fill rotation after Falter, Jones injuries?

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The Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation took a beating last week. Not only did the Bucs lose standout rookie right-hander Jared Jones to a lat strain, but breakout lefty Bailey Falter left his most recent start with left posterior arm discomfort, and was sent to the Injured List on Sunday afternoon in favor of relief option/innings eater Brent Honeywell.

Jones and Falter have both been key pieces to the Pirates this year, so losing both at the same time is massive. So, if they have to miss time beyond the typical two-to-three-week Injury List stint, what options do the Pirates have at their disposal?

Pirates Rotation Options on the 40-Man Roster

The Pirates already have a few options in the major leagues. One is Luis Ortiz. Ortiz opened the year as a long reliever. However, since the start of June, Ortiz has pitched more and more innings, working as a bulk arm after the opener (and once as a starter). It’s worked very well so far, aside from one clunker on June 21. Still, Ortiz has a 3.33 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP over his last 24.1 IP. He has a healthy 23.5% K%, and has only allowed two home runs with a microscopic 2% walk rate.

Another pitcher on the active major league roster who could see more innings is Josh Fleming. Fleming was recalled to take the ball on June 16, and he’s pitched well since. He’s only tossed seven innings since getting recalled, but has allowed just one walk and one earned run while striking out a trio of batters. Fleming has shown he can pitch well as a long reliever, with most of his struggles coming in May when the Pirates were forced to rely on him more heavily in higher-leverage situations.

Quinn Priester will also be a potential option for the Pirates. Priester has pitched 31.2 innings in the bigs this year with a 4.83 ERA, 5.72 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP. On the plus side, he has a 60% ground ball rate, a 6% barrel rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. On the downside, he still has an HR/9 approaching 2.00 and a mediocre 13.8% K%. Priester has some more promising underlying numbers, however, with a 4.17 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA, which paints him as a solid No. 4/No. 5 starter.

One pitcher who will look to return to the Pirates’ rotation soon is Marco Gonzales. The veteran lefty opened the year with three strong outings, pitching 17 frames, only allowing five earned runs, walking just five, giving up a single home run, and striking out 11. But Gonzales landed on the IL in mid-April and has been there since. Gonzales is scheduled to pitch the same night as Falter's injury, so they are on the same schedule right now.

Although we’ll discuss more prospects in a minute, one of the Pirates’ best prospects is already on their 40-man roster in the form of Braxton Ashcraft. Ashcraft has pitched 69 innings between Altoona and Indy, working to a 3.00 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. He has struck out just over a quarter of his opponents with a 25.9% K%, but he’s done well at limiting walks with a 4.3% BB%. He's also avoided the home run ball, sporting an 0.78 HR/9. Ashcraft did miss his last start and was put on the 10-day IL, but he was just activated on July 6, so he’s definitely an option for the Pirates.

Pirates Prospects

If the Pirates want to get bold, they could shoot top prospect Bubba Chandler straight to the big leagues. There’s no question his stuff would play. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and tops out at triple-digits. He also has a plus slider, an above-average changeup, and improving command. His performance should also put him under consideration for a bump to Triple-A Indy, at the very least.

Chandler has tossed 61.2 innings this year with a 3.65 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP. Opponents almost never get a hit off of Chandler, sporting a .188 batting average against. When they do get hits, they’re almost never homers, as Chandler has an 0.73 HR/9 on the year. He’s also been decent at limiting base runners with an 8.9% walk rate. Chandler is also rocking a K% just a touch above 30% at 30.4%.

But since the start of June, Chandler has been next to untouchable on the mound. He has a 1.97 ERA, 1.61 FIP, and 0.73 WHIP over his last 33 frames. Chandler has punched out over a third of his opponents with a 33.9% K%, but he also has a walk rate of just 2.4%. He’s only allowed 21 hits for a .173 batting average against. Of those hits, only one was a home run.

Another top pitching prospect at Double-A the Pirates could shuttle straight to the bigs is Thomas Harrington. Harrington doesn’t have the overwhelming velocity of Chandler, but he has good movement on his fastball, slider, changeup, cutter, and two-seamer. He also is arguably the best command right-hander in the Pirates’ system.

Harrington’s numbers on the year at least merit a promotion to Triple-A, at the very least. He’s thrown 52.2 innings with a 2.56 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP. He has a respectable 24.4% K%, and an 0.68 HR/9. Notably, he’s limited walks at an extremely good rate, posting a BB% of just 3.3%. He has one of the lowest walk rates among all minor-league pitchers this year.

The trade market contains option for the Pirates

The Pirates have bigger holes they need to fill via trade, and while it's unlikely they'll go after one of the top options on the market (like Garret Crochet, even though that would be somewhat unnecessary, but extremely fun), they could make a play for a short-term starting pitcher, depending on how long Jones and Falter are out. On the plus side, there are a handful of rentals they could look to go after. One of the top short-term options is Colorado Rockies right-hander Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has rebounded after a rough 2023 campaign despite pitching in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.

Quantrill has a 3.77 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP through 100.1 innings. Looking at some underlying numbers, you might think Quantrill is getting lucky. He’s only struck out 17.5% of batters faced with a below-average 9.2% walk rate. His 1.08 HR/9 and 5.2% walk rate are good, especially considering he’s pitched in Coors for half his season, but those are about the only positives of his peripherals. He has both a 4.63 SIERA and 4.63 xFIP, but in 2021-2022, he also had a similar 4.50 SIERA and 4.41 xFIP with an ERA of 3.16. He’s a guy who has consistently overperformed his peripherals, and there's very little reason why he couldn’t continue to do so, especially if he gets traded away from Coors. Quantrill is a free agent after 2025.

Another rental starter is Erick Fedde. After a poor start to his MLB career with the Washington Nationals, Fedde headed overseas to South Korea in 2023, where he then won KBO’s equivalent of the Cy Young award. Fedde signed with the Chicago White Sox this past offseason and has continued to dominate batters in the United States.

Fedde currently has a 3.16 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. He has an above-average 0.93 HR/9 with a 21.3% strikeout rate, and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league at limiting walks; he only has a 6.4% BB%. Fedde has also been good at limiting hard contact with a 7% barrel rate. He has a 46.8% ground ball rate and could potentially be even better on the Pirates. While the Bucs don’t have Gold Glove fielders all around, they’re a much better defensive team than the White Sox. The Sox have -22 outs above average and -50 defensive runs saved. The Pirates have -12 DRS and -17 OAA. Like Quantrill, Fedde will also be a free agent after next season.

One pitcher who is a pure rental is Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi broke out last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting his best numbers yet since coming over from Japan in 2019. He’s still pitching well into 2024 and could potentially play even better, given how good his underlying numbers are.

Kikuchi has a 4.12 ERA, but a 3.61 FIP and 1.31 WHIP through 94 innings. He’s struck out 24.8% of the batters who have come to the plate against him, but has handed out even fewer walks on average than Fedde with a 5.8% BB%. Kikuchi is currently posting a career-low 1.24 HR/9 (unless you count his work in 2020). The southpaw also has career-best numbers in SIERA (3.56) and xFIP (3.41). The Pirates love their veteran lefties, so maybe this is a short-term fix they’d consider.

One last rental that may be on the trading block is lefty Andrew Heaney. Heaney has been a solid middle-rotation starter for the Texas Rangers for the last two seasons. Heaney has a 4.04 ERA, 3.91 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP in 84.2 innings. Heaney has both an above-average 23.3% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate, but he has been slightly home run-prone, with a 1.24 HR/9. Granted, the Rangers’ Globe Life Field is the third most home run-friendly park in baseball per Baseball Savant’s park factors. His HR/9 on the road is 1.07; perhaps the Pirates can take advantage.

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