Prospect expert’s bold Pirates-Red Sox trade would leave Pittsburgh in worse shape

The Pittsburgh Pirates need some hitting. They averaged just 3.6 runs per game in 2025, the fewest in baseball this season. Fans are understandably unhappy, given the seeming lack of urgency for the Pirates to add any bats to support a strong pitching staff. MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis, when asked about a pitcher-for-hitter trade he would make to fix Pittsburgh this week, made a mock trade involving the Pirates getting a near-MLB-ready bat. Unfortunately, it came at a tremendously high cost.

Callis' mock swap saw the Bucs receiving the Boston Red Sox's No. 1 prospect, infielder Franklin Arias, in exchange for the Pirates' 2025 first-round pick, RHP Seth Hernandez. Despite Arias' pedigree, this trade is a swap that would not be worth the Pirates' time. 

On paper, the Pirates would be sending MLB Pipeline's 27th-best prospect for the 24th-best prospect in Arias, but that's a gross simplification. Arias did not do poorly in the minor leagues this season, but he also didn't do much to stand out. He hit .278/.335/.388 with a .342 wOBA and 110 wRC+ over 526 plate appearances. He, like Pirates star prospect Konnor Griffin, started the year at A-Ball and finished the season at Double-A. Arias rarely struck out, with a 10.7% K%, but he posted only a 7.2% walk rate. The infielder only went yard eight times with an ISO of .110. He didn't make up for it with elite baserunning, either, only going 12-for-21 in stolen base attempts.

MLB Pipeline does hold Arias in high regard. Aside from being ranked among baseball's top 30 prospects, he also receives a 60-grade for both his hit tool and his fielding at shortstop, and is considered the best infield glove in the Red Sox's system. Despite his fringy speed, his baseball IQ and reactions give him good range. He also has an arm strong enough to stick at shortstop long term. Power isn't Arias' strong suit, but they project him to be a 15-20 home run hitter.

This mock Pirates-Red Sox trade from prospect expert Jim Callis would be a bad idea.

But forget projectability; Hernandez has been considered by some to bethe best prep pitcher in the draft's history. He came out of high school ranked as a consensus top-three draft prospect, only to somehow fall to the Pirates at the No. 6 pick. He is already sitting in the upper-90s and touching triple-digits. His 12-6 curveball registers upwards of 3,000 RPM. His second breaking pitch is a low-to-mid-80s slider that already looks like an above-average pitch. His circle-change is a second potential plus-plus, 70-grade offering, just like his four-seamer. Hernandez is doing all of that while displaying above-average command of his entire arsenal. He is only 19 as well, and won't turn 20 until the final week of June. 

Plus, Arias isn't a consensus top-30 prospect with two tools everyone projects as 60 or better on the 20-80 scale. Baseball America is a lot less bullish on him. They ranked him as the 48th best prospect in baseball, which is still very high, but Hernandez is among their top 30, ranked No. 26. Of his five tools, BA only projects Arias' arm strength and fielding at shortstop as above average, with both receiving a 55-grade.

However, the most worrying aspect of Arias is that he hasn't excelled beyond the low levels of the minor leagues. He had a 146 wRC+ in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old in 2023. He then put up a 173 wRC+ in the Florida Complex League in 2024. While his numbers since heading to A-Ball and beyond aren't horrible, they aren't outstanding either. He's shown flashes of greatness, but nothing more.

Arias is only 19, and he did well this year, considering his age and how fast he moved up the minor league ladder. Hernandez, meanwhile, hasn't even played in a professional game yet. There's still plenty of time for Arias to improve areas of his game where he struggles, but the Pirates don't have time to wait on that. They have a lot of arms they could, and should, consider trading this offseason. However, Callis' trade proposal doesn't do the Pirates any good. If the Pirates are trading Hernandez, a remarkable talent who hasn't even debuted yet, it would have to be for a proven hitter. You don't trade a guy like this for a young position player whose numbers since moving from short-season to full-season ball are good, sure, but not great.